Did you really think the Factory would lose their edge after winning a title? My week of celebration has ended and it's time to analyze and prep for the 2011 draft. Don't worry we here at the Factory will not horde all of our information. We will gladly pass on our insights for those who follow the blog on a routine basis. All during the offseason the Factory will release information that will prepare you for a successful draft day come next March. So sit back relax and let the Factory prepare you for a title run.
In today's installment we are looking at 3players who all finished among the Top 10 fantasy players in all of baseball this season, depending what company you are associated with. The Factory has identified these players as 3 players whom will likely be selected as First Rd talent based on incredible 2010 season but will not return first round value to you. The players ranking is based on rankings from a 6X6 Yahoo League which uses AVG/HR/RUNS/RBI/SB/OPS for offense and QS/K/SV/ERA/WHIP/Kper9 for pitching.
Carlos Gonzalez (1)- The number one overall player will no doubt be selected in every draft around the country in the first round. Based on his incredible 2010 season he is deserving of such high praise however in 2011 what you accomplished in 2010 doesn't count for much and we at the Factory have found some indicators that could suggest the 2010 of Cargo will not be duplicated. Cargo posted a statline of .336/34/111/117/26. The first stat that comes into question is the .336 AVG. Cargo had a BABIP of .384 this season which is a number one cannot sustain therefore a significant drop in average should be expected. Cargo also posted a HR/FB rate of 20.4% which is a significant increase over his career mark of 16.1%. So those 34 HR's of last season could very well be in the mid to high 20 totals. If Cargo can keep hold of the 3 and 4 spot in the lineup he can very well drive in over 100 and score 100 but the AVG should fall into the .280's with the HR's in the mid 20's. If Cargo can still manage the mid 20's SB total then he may very well still warrant a late first round selection but not many 4 hole hitters will swipe 20 year in and year out. Also beware of Cargo's inconsistent play in Head to Head leagues. Cargo is another Coors field hitter with splits in AVG of .380 to .289 and HR 26 to 8.
Jose Bautista (9)- The lone 50 HR player this season came out of nowhere and was no doubt the best player who was found on the Waiver Wire. Bautista had a statline of 260/54/109/124/9. Now I don't know if that many people will be sold on Bautista after only one good season but I still can't imagine a scenario where Bautista would slip beyond the third Rd. Bautista isn't a fluke he has a solid batters eye and can work a walk his .260 AVG was the result of a .233 BABIP and he has shown some power potential in limited action in the past. The problem with Bautista is you are drafting him as a elite power potential and that isn't who he is. Though many experts would like to think a new hitting approach or some type of unprescribed cough medicine was behind the remarkable 2010 campaign I can point to 2 numbers. First of which is GB/FB rate. Bautista's career mark was .85 this season Bautista was fly ball happy with a rate of .57. If that wasn't enough to increase his HR total how about a increased amount of FB that left the yard. Bautista's career mark is 13.8% this season 21.7% of fly balls Bautista hit left the yard. Bautista will be worthy of a roster spot this season and will not go undrafted again but a elite power option he will not be.
Joey Votto (5). No doubt this choice will be highly scrutinized by my 64/60 brethren but the Factory isn't in the business of pleasing people. Hard to argue with Votto's 2010 season. .324/37/106/113/16 is elite level production and the 16 steals are a nice addition to a team coming from a 1B. Given Votto's 2010 season and his young age of 27 Votto is a certain first round selection next season. However the Factory will not be buying stock on Votto at that price next year. Votto is a legit .300 hitter but the .324 mark this season was likely thanks in part to a .361 BABIP in defense of Votto his career mark albeit in a smaller sample size is .353. Votto also has posted a high BABIP during his minor league career. With all that being said Votto's skill set doesn't lend itself to sustain a BABIP of that rate throughout a career so I am inclined to believe the .324 AVG of last season will be closer to .300. Secondly Votto hit 37 HR's last season, 12 HR's better than his previous career high. Votto's hitting style isn't consistent of that of a 30 HR player. Votto hits a substantial amount of more GB than FB. The typical rate of a 30+ HR player is near 1 or 50/50. Votto's career rate is 1.19 which isn't alarming however in his three full seasons two of them have rates of 1.44 and last season Votto posted a 1.30 rate. Votto's lofty HR total despite this bad ratio is thanks to a HR/FB rate of 25% a big increase on his 19.99% career rate. Given Votto's young age and lack of experience he could easily make me look like a idiot. It certainly wouldn't be the first time but if my prognostications are correct I don't want to spend a first round pick on a .300 hitting 25 HR First Baseman.
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