Friday, June 11, 2010
Fantasy Fundamentals From The Factory Waiver Wire Roundup: Damned If I Do Damned If I Don't
Today we are focusing on 3 Offensive Players and 3 Pitchers who have had fine seasons thus far but have yet to become fixtures in most leagues. These players all are ranked among the Top 210 in Yahoo leagues but yet are all owned in less than 35% of leagues. Do these players warrant a roster spot or have they been wisely disregarded as a flash in the pan.
Austin Kearns Rank 128 Owned 8% Stat Line: .313 5 HR 30 Runs 26 RBI 4 SB .882 OPS.
Kearns hasn't ever been a better than average fantasy player even in his prime so to believe his Top 130 ranking is legit would be foolish. Kearns has a .416 BABIP which has been aided by a 28.8% LD rate which is 8% better than his career mark. Kearns has beneffited from a HR/FB rate of 15.2 which is double his average over the last three seasons. On a positive note the HR/FB rate is within the realm of Kearn's prime which netted a few 20+ HR seasons. Bottom Line: Once Kearn's fortunes reverse so will his numbers. Once his numbers decline so will his AB. NO AB no FP.
David DeJesus Rank 168 Owned 33% Stat Line: .307 4HR 30Runs 25RBI 2SB .840 OPS.
DeJesus will likely never live up to the promise that was bestowed on him when he was the centerpiece of the Beltran deal. DeJesus's underlying numbers are in line with his career marks for the most part. DeJesus's does have a .337 BABIP up from a career mark of .321 and his plate discipline has improved thus far with a BB/K rate of .79. Bottom Line: DeJesus isn't good at anything but he also will not hurt you with his production. Over a full season he is a .280-.290 hitter with 10-15 HR and 10-15 SB with a Run Production line in the 140's.
Andres Torres Rank 209 Owned 11% Stat Line: .291 3HR 25Runs 15RBI 11SB .853 OPS.
Torres began the season as the Giants 5th OF and thru ineffective play has now found himself as a everyday player somewhere in the OF. Torres has beneffited thus far from a .352 BABIP which has been helped by a 26.8 LD rate. Torres has shown an improved eye at the plate with a BB/K rate of .65 compared to a career mark of .40. Bottom Line: Torres won't help you with his average but he shouldn't hurt you either. He is a .270 hitter who is a good source for SB and could benefit from a good lineup spot which could generate 80 runs over the course of a season.
Jason Vargas 151 Rank Owned 26% Stat Line: 4W 44K 3.06ERA 1.13WHIP 5.60 K/9.
For future reference if you are a struggling pitcher and are in search for a contract do yourself a favor and either sign with the Cardinals or the Mariners. Dave Duncan seems to make everyone look good while the Mariners defense seems to have the same effect. Vargas has posted a BABIP of .254 and has stranded 77.3% of his runners on the bases. To make the bottom line even better Vargas has yielded just a 6.2% HR/FB rate. Taking all of this into account Vargas has a xFIP of 4.94 nearly two full runs above his current mark. Bottom Line: At some point these numbers will grow and when they do you are left with a pitcher with little swing and miss stuff.
Jamie Moyer 180 Rank 13% Owned Stat Line: 6W 33K 3.98ERA 1.08WHIP 4.11 K/9. The ageless wonder. Moyer's career arc is one of a kind. In what should have been his prime years Moyer was nearly run out of baseball due to his ineffectivness. All these years later Moyer is approaching 300 Wins and has been great stepping back into the rotation. Moyer's numbers owe thanks to a .240 BABIP. Moyer has a xFIP of 4.68 and a pedestrian K/9 to go with it. Bottom Line: Like Vargas, once the numbers level out some ugly outings should be expected. Moyer is simply a time bomb that can go off at any moment. Handle with Caution.
Brett Myers 207 Rank 17% Owned Stat Line: 4W 65K 3.01ERA 1.39WHIP 7.25K/9.
Myers has been a suprise to many this season. Myers was awful at times last season in his return to the rotation. Given the move to hitter friendly Minute Maid Park and Myers habit of serving up Home Runs it was difficult to be optimistic. As expected Myers has benefitted from a 8% HR/FB rate nearly half his career mark so up to this point those BB have yet to come back to haunt him more often than not. Myers's xFIP of 3.81 points toward a regression but is still a respectable number. Bottom Line: Myers is worth a good look. His K totals have improved from last season and though he hasn't returned to the Myers of 3 years ago but a decent back of the rotation option.
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1 comment:
Good information to have.
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