If I have said it once I have said it a thousand times..."Nothing is worse in Fantasy Baseball than the healthy superstar who isn't getting it done." In this installment of 2010 failures we are looking at 6 players who were likely drafted among the Top 9 rounds in most drafts and are all ranked well outside of the Top 250 overall players. Hopefully we can give some reassurance to there owners or provide enough information to find some comfort in cutting them loose.
*All rankings are based on Yahoo's Overall Ranking System. The ownership % is also based on Yahoo's totals.
Derrek Lee Rank 332 Owned 86%- Stat Line: .237 6 HR 28 Runs 24 RBI 1 SB .704 OPS. It's pretty easy to see why the North Siders are 6 games below .500 with the lack of production from their 3 and 4 hitters. Lee has been much better than Ramirez but ARam has been the most unproductive everyday player in baseball this season. Lee has suffered from a low BABIP of .280 which is well below his career mark of .322. Another indicator that a turnaround is on the horizon would be Lee's BB/K rate of .67which is a slight increase compared to his career mark of .56. Also considering Lee's 9.4 HR/FB rate compared to his 16.7 career mark, Lee could be a great buy cheap player to have from this point on. Bottom Line: Owners who acquire Lee thinking that a duplication of 05 should be expected is an idiot but a .270 hitter with 25 HR and a run production total above 150 should be expected and is still a reasonable expectation this season.
Adam Lind Rank 375 Owned 86%- Stat Line: .216 8HR 26 Runs 30 RBI .649 OPS. Another player who was selected very early in drafts everywhere. Lind was drafted in the 6th Rd of the 64/60 draft. Perhaps Lind's biggest problem has been the expectations put on him after a breakout 09. Lind has suffered from a low .248 BABIP but his other numbers are around his career mark. Lind has increased his swing and miss totals which is always a cause for concern especially from 20.6 to the 27% mark from this year. However Lind has increased his walk totals so that his BB/K rate resembles his career mark. A HR/FB rate of 11.1 is a big difference from the 19.8 mark of 09 but the 11.1 is near his career mark indicating that last seasons 30+ HR shouldn't be expected. Bottom Line: If you drafted Lind expecting a mid 30 HR Season then you will have remorse but if you expected a Derrek Lee type player with 25 HR and a decent AVG with good run production totals then 2010 still has a glimpse of hope.
Carlos Lee Rank 413 Owned 80%- Stat Line: .218 8 HR 21 Runs 28 RBI 1 SB .632 OPS. Coincidentally Lee has been one of the most underrated fantasy performers year after year over the last 8 years or so. Lee was a 7th round selection in the 64/60 and was almost certainly gone everywhere by the 9th Round. The biggest cause for concern is a decreased walk rate with a increase in K's. Lee's BB/K rate is nearly half his career mark .38 compared to .61. Lee has suffered from a very low BABIP of .227 thanks to a decrease in LD% from 19.9 to a 15.5 mark this season. Also a power surge should be expected. Lee's HR/FB rate of 9.2 is 4% below his career mark of 13.2. Bottom Line: I wouldn't count on Lee sniffing the .275 mark this season and his OPS will fail to reach the .850 mark but a 25-30 HR season is possible as is a 150 run production total.
John Lackey Rank 126 Owned 82%- Stat Line: 6 Wins 4.72 ERA 1.64 WHIP 41K 4.96 K/9.
Draft position was likely inflated due to the Red Sox effect. Lackey has been in a decline for the last 3-4 seasons and in truth his 2010 could easily be worse. Lackey has decreased his K totals and increased his BB. His K/BB rate of 1.17 is more than half of his career mark of 2.61. A K/9 rate of 4.96 is nearing Jamie Moyer territory and well below a career mark of 7.10. Lackey's ERA of 4.72 is better than his xFIP of 5.31. Bottom Line: Lackey is a veteran pitcher who can grind. The move from the AL WEST to the AL East has to factor into these numbers. Expect a slightly better performance from this point on but Lackey would be a player I would happily depart with.
Jake Peavy Rank 890 Owned 76%- Stat Line: 4 Wins 5.90 ERA 1.36 WHIP 65 K 7.66 K/9.
Another player who is suffering from a change in scenery. It is hard on a pitcher to go from the NL to the AL and the move can be more difficult on the numbers when you leave the pitcher friendly parks and weak lineups from the NL West. As should be expected Peavy's K totals have took a hit this year but a 7.66 K/9 total is still respectable. Peavy's K/BB total is 2.50 compared to a 3.06 mark once again this number has less to do with skill than the change of address. Peavy has suffered from a poor LOB% of 62.6 compared to a 76.3 career mark and a increased HR/FB rate of 11.7 compared to 9.7 doesn't help. Bottom Line: Peavy is no longer the ace of a staff in fact he may not be better than a 3 of 4 option but his xFIP is a full run and a half better than his current ERA which is good enough to remain patient.
Wandy Rodriguez Rank 996 Owned 69%- Stat Line: 3 Wins 4.95 ERA 1.62 WHIP 46 K 6.15 K/9. Wandy was just recently let go in the 64/60 and has been a very hot button topic amongst ownership. I am the sap who found it in my heart to give Wandy a second chance and after two unspectacular outings I have been given plenty of grief. Wandy has that death to a pitcher combo of increased BB with decreased K's which is Combo #1 at Dontrelle Willis's Superstars of Yesterdays burger joint. But it's not all bad for Wand Rod a BABIP of .354 and a Strand Rate of 64.2% are sure to regress and the xFIP of 4.33 indicates that Wandy hasn't been none of that and a bag of chips. Bottom Line: Wandy likely won't help your WHIP but he has swing and miss stuff and odds on his side. I'll hold onto Wandy until I lose all faith because that's how I roll. I currently have 25% of faith left for the record.
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