Thursday, May 13, 2010

Fantasy Fundamentals From The Factory: Underlying Leaderboard


It is easy to see who is having a fine season. Pick up your local paper on a daily basis, go to the MLB section and there you will find the Top 5-10 players in AVG, Runs, RBI, etc. listed. These players have been the best in baseball up to this point and it doesn't take a genius to figure that out. We fantasy players know that all seasons aren't created equal. We know that some players have been extremely fortunate or possibly unfortunate thus far in this young season so many of their success or failures depends on events out of their control. We here at the Factory have taken a look at the Leaderboards of some of the underlying numbers to see who have been some of the most fourtanate or unfortunate players thus far in 2010. The Hitting statistics are based on a minimum of 100 AB's and the Stats used are BABIP (Best and Worst) along with HR/FB rate. In addition to these totals I also have the actual player AVG and HR totals so you can see the positive/negative effect of these numbers. For pitchers I used 30IP as the threshold and the Stats used are best/worst BABIP and best/worst LOB%.
Player BABIP(Worst) AVG Player BABIP(Best) AVG
1. Aramis Ramirez .183/.163 1. Austin Jackson .500/.360
2. Carlos Quentin .188/.194 2. Carlos Ruiz .415/.354
3. Paul Konerko .189/.273 3. Jayson Werth .410/.348
4. Casey Kotchman .198/.194 4. Franklin Gutierrez .407/.322
5. AJ Pierzynski .200/.204 5. Colby Rasmus .400/.304
6. Mark Teixeira .202/.202 6. Sin Shoo Choo .400/.315
7. Aki Iwamura .207/.182 7. Miguel Cabrera .398/.377
8. Carlos Pena .208/.179 8. David Freese .390/.320
9. Nate McClouth .210/.169 9. Chase Headley .388/.325
10. Lyle Overbay .217/.172 10. Andre Ethier .386/.393
Player HR/FB% HR
1. Jason Heyward 38.1/8
2. Paul Konerko 30.2/13
3. Ty Wigginton 29.4/10
4. Andruw Jones 29.0/9
5. Kelly Johnson 28.6/10
6. Andre Ethier 27/10
7. Joey Votto 25.9/7
8. David Wright 24.1/7
9. Robinson Cano 23.7/9
10. Kendry Morales 22.6/7
Pitcher BABIP(Best) Pitcher BABIP(Worst)
1. Livan Hernandez .188 1. Doug Davis .415
2. Jeff Niemann .211 2. Justin Masterson .411
3. Phil Hughes .213 3. Randy Wells .383
4. Jon Garland .224 4. Jonathan Niese .382
5. Chris Volstad .224 5. Cole Hamels .372
6. Tim Hudson .227 6. Gavin Floyd .371
7. Barry Zito .228 7. Homer Bailey .370
8. Doug Fister .230 8. Wandy Rodriguez .366
9. David Price .231 9. Josh Beckett .365
10. CC Sabathia .232 10. James Shields .363
Pitcher LOB%(Best) Pitcher LOB%(Worst)
1. Livan Hernandez 98.9 1. Felipe Paulino 52.3
2. Ubaldo Jimenez 90 2. Scott Feldman 54.2
3. Jeff Niemann 89.8 3. Craig Stammen 55
4. Tim Lincecum 85.4 4. Josh Beckett 56.9
5. Kevin Slowley 84.9 5. Kyle Lohse 57.6
6. Jered Weaver 84.6 6. Gavin Floyd 57.7
7. Matt Garza 84 7. Max Scherzer 58.3
8. Roy Halladay 84 8. Doug Davis 58.4
9. Phil Hughes 84 9. Luke Hochevar 59.1
10. Tim Hudson 83.8 10. Aaron Cook 60.2
* To give you a baseline for what is the Average Baseline for both, BABIP league average is around .298 to just above .300 throughout a typical season for both pitchers and hitters. The LOB league AVG is usually somewhere between 69-73%.

7 comments:

jesseward said...

I don't understand these statistics and I refuse to think about them.

Can you give me a tutorial on what BABIP (and other measurements) is and what you think it means?

Jess

Anonymous said...

Information overload.But thanks for the research,

Richard

jesseward said...

Rich, I am planning the 64/60 golf tournament for late August. How does that sound?

I will finalize the date in early August. Do you have a preference on a course? I figured Diamond Link because of the location but I'm up for anything.

Let me know.

Anonymous said...

i think babip for pitchers is a little misleading since alot of pitchers pitch to contact. i.e. ground ball outs.

todd

Josh Coleman said...

A pitcher who pitches to contact isn't more inclined to have a higher BABIP than a K pitcher. BABIP is simply the % of pithces hit that go for a hit rather than an out.

jesseward said...

Josh,

Why would a K pitcher have a higher BABIP than a contact pitcher?

So a pitch that goes for a strike or a ball or a foul ball is not counted in the BABIP? What if it's the 3rd strike?

I'm confused.

Jess

Josh Coleman said...

BABIP is the percent of balls that are hit in fair territory that fall for base hits. The league average is around .300 or 30% the number isn't higher or lower for a "K" pitcher opposed to a contact pitcher. A pitcher who has a BABIP of .250 is likely to regress closer to the league average as the season continues therefore a increased amount of base runners should be expected therefore his ERA is likely to rise.