64/60 Sports: Breaking Down the Under 21 Prospect

Just over a week ago the Chicago Cubs promoted their number one prospect 20 year old SS, Starlin Castro. After the promotion Castro immediately made a impact driving in a MLB rookie record 6 runs in his first game. The next day me and a fellow 64/60ian were having a conversation regarding prospects in general and I made a statement that non-US born players historically have adjusted better to the majors than US born players. Shortly after I made that statement I wondered what made me say that. I have no idea how many players have made their debuts so how could I make that statement. I did however recall the rookie seasons of Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria, Roberto Alomar and Miguel Cabrerra. All of those players had solid rookie seasons and Cabrera and Jones appeared in the World Series. On the flipside the only US prospects of that age that I could immediately think of was Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. So we (me) at the 64/60 did some research. I wanted to see if my synopsis was correct or if I once again was talking out of another part of my anatomy.

To make the research somewhat manageable I went back 25 years to 1985. I also only included players who played primarily as a 20 year old or younger. For example Phil Hughes debuted as a 20 year old but soon turned 21 and played more at 21 then at 20 so he was not included. In all 109 players meet the criteria needed to qualify. Of these players 57 are US born players and 52 were born outside of the US. Some other data retrieved includes 57 of the players were position players while 52 were used as either a SP or RP and in many cases both. The list primarily consist of 20 year old players but twenty 19 year old's made their debuts as well as A Rod who was 18. The list has many Hall Of Fame caliber players but there are also many players who fizzled out rather quickly. In a rather unscientific method I concluded that about 40% of the players had short and/or ineffective careers. In fact I was worried that the numerous sample sizes may effect the overall results of the research so I decided to add additional criteria to the study. To eliminate the 4AB or 3IP I decided that a minimum of 50 PA for offensive players was required. For the pitchers a minimum of 3 starts for a SP or 10 appearances/10 IP for a reliever. Just for clarification a SP who made 2 starts and pitched 11 innings did not qualify. So with that criteria in mind 67 players qualified. 40 US and 27 Non-US players. 34 of which are pitchers 24 US, 10 Non-US. 33 Position players 16 US, 17 Non-US. So countless hours were spent researching these 67 players. For pitchers I focused on IP, W/L record, Hits and BB, K, and ER. For Hitters I looked at AB, Hits, Runs, HR, RBI and SB. After the hours and hours of research here are the findings. (Please note that players who have made their debuts this season are not included in this study.)

US Pitching: The largest group in the bunch with 24 players. Of these 24 players, 10did not or have yet to return to the minors. The group totaled a 95-109 record pitched a combined 1636 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 1.47, a ERA of 4.74 and a K/9 of 6.32. The best performer during his rookie campaign was CC Sabathia who went 17-5 with a 1.35 WHIP, a ERA of 4.39 and 171K's. Sabathia, Jeremy Bonderman and Rick Porcello started the season with their clubs and three others Greinke, Kershaw and Steve Avery all spent a better part of the season with the big club.

Non-US Born Pitching: The smallest group of the bunch with only 10 players. This group didn't have the sustained success of the US group with only two players who did not return to the minors. This group totaled a 17-25 record in 438 2/3 with a WHIP of 1.39 a ERA of 4.10 and a 7.86 K/9. Not one of these players spent even the majority of the season in the majors the highest innings total belonged to Oliver Perez who pitched in 90 innings during the 2002 campaign. The best debut belonged to Felix Hernandez who appeared in 12 games with 12 starts. Hernandez posted a 4-4 mark with a ERA of 2.66 with a WHIP of 1.02 and 77 K's.

US Position Players: 16 players including Ken Griffey Jr., Gary Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez who all have Hall of Fame credentials. Only Griffey played in a majority of his teams games. Only four others had more than a 100 AB. The average stat line per player was .259 with 2HR 13 Runs 13 RBI and 3 SB. Seven of the players did not or have yet to return to the minors. As a group only Willie Greene, Benji Gil and Marc Newfield failed or have yet to have any success in the majors.

Non US Position Players: 17 players meet the criteria for this group including Hall Of Fame caliber players Roberto Alomar, Sammy Sosa and Ivan Rodriguez. Unlike the US group many of these players earned substantial time in their debut season. Alomar, Elvis Andrus and Edgar Renteria all had over 400 AB while only three players from this group failed to gain 100 AB. Where as the US born players featured three players who's career faltered this group did not include a players who did not post a career longer than 13 years. Roberto Alomar had the best season of the group hitting .266 with 84 Runs 9 HR 41 RBI and 24SB. The average per player for this group is a .263 AVG with 33 Runs 5 HR 25 RBI and 7 SB.

Verdict: So in the end what did the 64/60 find out? Though the US had a big advantage in the number of innings pitched non-US pitchers had a slight edge in the quality of the innings. The US had a better Winning % of .465 compared to .404 but every other stat favored foreign pitchers with a ERA of 4.10 compared to 4.74, K/9 of 7.86 compared to 6.32 and a WHIP of 1.39 compared to 1.47. The hitting was a little more difficult to breakdown. Clearly the Non-US players fared better from a totals perspective and average per player due to a AB advantage of 4161 to 1876. Instead of looking at the totals or average per player I used .AVG and then Runs/HR/RBI/SB per AB. So considering those numbers US players posted a .259 AVG with a Run every 8.8 AB a HR every 48.1 AB a RBI every 9.2 AB and a SB every 37.5 AB. Foreign players posted a .263 AVG a 7.5 Run rate, 46.7 HR rate a 9.9 RBI rate and a 33.2 SB rate. With that said Foreign born players outperformed US born players offensively during their first tour of the Major Leagues.

These statistics hardly provide concrete proof that my original statement was correct but I do feel as though the present a good argument. My original thought behind my statement was that most foreign born players have lived the "professional" lifestyle longer than a US born player. Many kids in the Dominican and other places are playing against people nearly twice their age as 15 year old. Many of these kids play baseball to provide an education where as US players go to school to provide baseball. I feel it is this cultural difference that makes the adjustment to professional baseball easier for those born outside of the United States.