64/60 Draft Recap Vol. 3

The key to a successful fantasy season is value. In the early stages of the draft it's hard to generate much value. You select Pujols number 1 overall in theory the best you can hope for is to break even. If he finishes as the 10th rated player in reality you lost value. While you often earn excellent return on investment with the late round selections, the process of obtaining the gains has as much to do with luck as skill. The back end of your draft is typically dedicated more toward what is needed than the best available player approach. So once again any value obtained in rounds 15-20 or 15-25 depending on league settings has some element of luck involved. The key to a successful team is the heart of the unit. I define rounds 6-15 as the heart of any fantasy team. This is the point of the draft where depth should be added that compliments your initial five selections. By round 15 your teams strengths and weaknesses should be easily defined. These players have a built in roster spot all are assumed solid contributors for the current season and all should have a longer leash than a 25th round selection. Here are our selections for the best and worst selections from Rounds 6-15 keeping in mind potential value gained and lost as the measuring stick. In this installment we look at the best selections.



JBC

*****Round 6- David Price, Tom Emanski's Deathsquad. While I think Victorino or a Young may be the best lock to not lose value Price could be a Top 5-10 pitcher at seasons end.

BOPP- I can't really argue with these first few picks.
-—-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JBC

*****Round 7- Zach Greinke, Hello Kitty. The BCFP has Greinke as a top 5 pitching option this season. Will produce solid numbers in 5 of 6 pitching categories and in my opinion he was the only player taken in the 7th that could finish as a Top 20 overall player.

BOPP- Agreed
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JBC

*****Round 8- Dan Haren, BCFP. I hate to get on this pitching run but truth of the matter none of the offensive players were steals in this round nor do I see any of the options beating the upside Haren has to offer.

BOPP- Agreed
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JBC

*****Round 9- Jayson Werth, Marshall Maniac. A rather lackluster round of potential breakout options. While I don't feel that Werth was necessarily a bargain at this point I do believe he has that coveted skill set of power and speed. Of all the players to choose from Werth seems like the only one who could emerge as a top 25 talent.

BOPP- Billy Butler, TBA....Butler is young, plays in 300 games a year and is a lock for a .300+ Avg and .800+ OPS. Werth is an aging, overpaid douchebag who is not the same player you might remember from his Philly days. Some may want to call last year a fluke as Werth's numbers were down across the board......Not me...Werth is 33 and as he loses his speed and grows out his facial hair, his .250-.260 Avg and 15 HR's is something that can be found on the Waiver Wire
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JBC

*****Round 10- Chris Young, Hendo Colonels. Outside of Ricky Romero, David Freese and Ryan Howard we could look back at this round as perhaps the best in the draft in terms of value. I could easily see Ichiro returning to the .320 hitter with 40 SB. Garza, Moore, Beachy, Wilson and Carpenter could all be Top 15-20 pitchers if certain things break the right way. Though I'm not a big Kipnis guy many compare him to a young Utley with 15-20 HR pop with equal SB production to boot. And though Reynolds may hit .240-.250 in a good year your looking at a 35+ HR guy in the 10th round. With all that value across the round I still love Young. My love for Chris Young is well documented. I've been laughed out of draft rooms over him yet every year I do not hesitate for a second to scream his name once more. At some point the improved plate discipline will net him a .270 AVG to go with the 30/30 potential.

BOPP- "Ask Again Later", says the Magic 8- Ball. Young's potential is certainly tantalizing, until the end of the year when his batting average is flirting with the Mendoza line.....I really like Ichiro to bounce back this year and have maybe one more "big" season, but it does seem like he should be in his 50's which leaves very little upside for the coming years.....Matt Moore is too young to know what to expect from him, but things look very promising. I have a pretty massive boner for this guy and think he could be a Top 10 pitcher up until he's yanked from the rotation as he hits his innings limit.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JBC

*****Round 11- Dee Gordon, The Militia. For as good as Round 10 was for potential upside this round could be known for it's disappointments. I just don't feel Ackley is there yet. Cespedes could begin the season in the minors. Ortiz, Lind, Drew, Ramirez, and Aybar could all produce positive gains but I just can't imagine anything outside of 2-3 rounds. For the record I'm not a Gordon guy. I just can't see him hitting north getting on base consistently enough to surpass 50 SB but should my projections be off and Gordon eclipse half a hundred your looking at a 4-5 round swing in value.

BOPP- Ian Kennedy, BCFP...Ian Kennedy is entering his prime and has 2 fantastic seasons since joining the D-Backs in what is known as a hitter friendly park. He improved all his basic numbers last year and his home /road splits are actually better when in AZ. He doesn't have "name value", but this guy is an elite pitcher that should have been drafted sooner than the 11th round.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JBC

*****Round 12- Nick Markakis, Hello Kitty. Like Young I have a penchant for Markakis. As of this point in his career he has been a glorified version of Josh Willingham with a better AVG. He's always around 20 HR's with 140-170 combined Runs and RBI's. Should 2012 be the year that total surpass the 180 mark that would make Markakis's value that of a 4th or 5th rounder.

BOPP- Tommy Hanson, BCFP / Carlos Beltran, TBA...Hanson and Beltran are both good value here if healthy. Markakis is capable of average/good numbers, but for THIS season I'll take the upside of either of the two previously mentioned players.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JBC

*****Round 13- Cory Luebke, Walls Of Jericho. Another rather lackluster round in terms of HR potential. Luebke could be a low WHIP good K rate option that could sneek in to the Top 15-20 SP rankings.

BOPP- Peter Bourjos, TBA...There were only three outfielders in baseball who hit 10 homers, 10 triples and stole 20 bases last year. Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson and Bourjos. The 24 year old had 12 homers, 11 triple and 22 steals last year and now bats in a lineup with Alberto Pujols. If he can grab hold of the leadoff spot in the Halo's lineup, good things are in store.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JBC

*****Round 14- Alex Rios, Hendo Colonels. No one has any reason to believe in Alex Rios. Outside of perhaps 3 seasons Rios has been a below average starting Major leaguer. His skill set is undeniable with the power speed combo it is this very reason why I feel Rios could easily produce value 7-8 rounds above this spot.

BOPP- Anibal Sanchez, Walls of Jericho...Does anyone want to guess how many strikeouts Sanchez had last year....?...?.....?.....202......With the importance of K's in our league, nabbing a guy with a 200k season on his resume is always nice. Especially as late as the 14th round.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JBC

*****Round 15- Marco Scutaro, BCFP. While I'll be the first to admit having Marco Scutaro as my starting SS has caused a couple of sleepless nights, I love this selection. Scutaro makes a insane amount of contact, Coors Field aids in BABIP like no other home ballpark, dare I say NL Batting Champ. While I may not see a batting title in his future a .300 AVG with 15 HR pop could produce Top 8 round production with a little help with Runs and or RBI.

BOPP- Adam Dunn, TBA....No lengthy argument here....If Dunn can return to his 35+ HR/100+RBI ways......Well then this would be the "steal" of the draft.........After last year though, that could be a pretty big "IF".