Not much heat left to the Hot Stove season. 2011 was a rather lackluster Hot Stove season to begin with and now with just over a month until Pitchers and Catchers report very few notable players remain in the Free Agent pool. Outside of some big name DHing canidates and potential closers Rafael Soriano and Brian Fuentes the remaining options are merely position fillers for bad teams or Bench depth builders for contenders. Your team looking for that Number 2 or 3 pitcher to push them inot the playoffs? I suggest testing the trade market because unless Carl Pavano is your guy good luck finding even a quality 4 or 5 guy in this collection of Free Agents.
Notable Remaining Free Agents
1B
Nick Johnson
Russell Branyan
Jim Thome
SS
Orlando Cabrerra
Edgar Renteria
3B
Jorge Cantu
Brandon Inge
OF
Vladimir Guerrero
Johnny Damon
Jose Guillen
Scott Podsednik
Manny Ramirez
Fred Lewis
Lastings Milledge
Scott Hairston
SP
Jeff Francis
Chris Young
Jeremy Bonderman
Justin Duchscherer
Kevin Millwood
Carl Pavano
Andy Pettitte (Yankees or retirement)
Brad Penny
John Maine
RP with Closing Potential
Trevor Hoffman
Brian Fuentes
Jon Rauch
Chad Qualls
Rafael Soriano
Free Agent Transactions 12/23-1/4
*Rockies sign Matt Lindstrom. Nothing more than a transaction to note in the event of a Houston Street Injury. Lindstorm will likely battle for the 8th inning role.
* Padres sign Brad Hawpe (.245AVG/9HR/.338OBP/.757OPS/2SB). Real Life: In a effort to fill a position as cost efficiently as possible the Padres sign a once productive player on the decline for a bottom basement price and hope to strike lightning in a bottle. Fantasy Life: From 06-09 Hawpe was a consistent 20+ HR player with decent AVG and solid run production out of a mid to late round draft pick. At 31 it's hard to say with certianty that Hawpe is washed up a Career .337 BABIP dropped to .308 last season so you can expect a slight bump in average likely to the .260 range. The low HR total can be blamed by a low 10.5% HR/FB rate well below his career mark of 16%. Bottom Line: Look for Hawpe to bounce back in 2011 and he should be targeted as a late round selection however don't pencil him in as your 1B or CI option as a good season will still only be a .260 hitter with 25 HR.
* Rangers sign Brandon Webb. Real Life: Webb has pitched 4 innings in two years and will likely be slotted as a 4th or 5th starter. Fantasy Life: The former NL Cy Young winner will likely be drafted by many as a sleeper canidate on name alone but to expect someone with such limited work to go to the better hitter league and still resemble the pitcher he was is foolish. Bottom Line: Webb's K/9 will be in the high 6's or low 7's and his pitch to contact approach won't fly in the AL even if it is the West. The Ballpark in Arlington isn't exactly a pitchers park so expect Webb to have a occasional solid performance but at seasons end you will have a pitcher with a ERA in the 5's with little K value and a WHIP in the 1.30 range.
* Brewers sign Takashi Saito. Nothing other than another 8th Inning guy who could become the closer at some point.
* Blue Jays sign Ocatvio Dotel. 22SV/10.55K/9/4.50BB/9/1.31WHIP/4.08ERA Real Life: Dotel is the front runner to be the closer of the Blue Jays when camp opens. Fantasy Life: Dotel will be part of that lower tier of closers on draft day. Situations could present him with 30+ Saves this year but not many of them will be pretty. Bottom Line: He is a closer so he will be drafted his contributions in K and K/9 is negated by his ERA and WHIP.
* Orioles sign Derrek Lee. .260AVG/19HR/.347OBP/.775OPS/1SB Real Life: Lee provides some veteran leadership for the Baby Birds and the O's hope a bounce back season will follow. Fantasy Life: Lee will be penciled in as a bounce back canidate after a disappointing 2009. I'm not one of these owners a three year increase in K% suggest to me that the bat of Lee is slowing down and at 35 it wouldn't be wise to expect a reversal. Bottom Line: Likely better than the .260 hitter from last season and his 22HR's won't warrant his draft position.
* Nationals sign Adam LaRoche. .261/25/.320/.788/0 Real Life: The Nats needed a 1B and LaRoche was the last option. A solid but not spectacular player. Fantasy Life: You could do worse from your CI option than LaRoche however you could also do better. His OPS of .788 was his lowest mark since 2005 while LaRoche's K% has increased the last 4 years while last seasons BB/K rate of .28 is well below his career mark of .41. Bottom Line: Many will draft LaRoche as their CI and feel pretty comfortable doing so. Given the apparent regression in his skill set I'll opt elsewhere to fill the position and target players with upside.
* Orioles sign Kevin Gregg. 37SV/3.51ERA/8.85K/9/4.58BB/9/1.39WHIP. Real Life: Gregg will be the front runner for the closers job when the O's break camp. Fantasy Life: Much like Dotel, Gregg is among the bottom tier of closers who could lose the job within the first month or could give you 30 Saves this season. Bottom Line: Among the last closers taken however unlike Dotel, Gregg's K and K/9 will not negate the inflated ERA and WHIP.
* Adrian Beltre signs with Rangers. .321/28/.365/.919/2. Real Life: Hard to believe Beltre is only 32 (wink,wink) it seems as though he has been around for decades. Beltre had MVP numbers for the Red Sox last year and cashed it in for the ridiculous amount of nearly 100 Million dollars. Beltre will bat in the heart of what should be a good lineup so the potential for solid Run Production numbers is their. Fantasy Life: Will likely be a Top 5-8 3B selected overall however can you count on the .321 AVG to be their once again with the 25+ HR? Bottom Line: Beltre isn't the player from 09 just as he isn't the MVP type player from 2010. A 80% contact rate compared to his career mark of 74% lead to more balls in play in 2010. This typically would mean a lower BABIP however Beltre's .331 mark from last year was well above his career .294 mark. Therfore Beltre hit more baseball's than ever before and those baseball's became hits at a higher rate. Expect Beltre's AVG to drop below .300 this season however a .280 hitter with 25HR potential is still a productive option at 3B. Monitor Beltre's ADP when it comes closer to draft day.
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