The Fantasy Spin On The Hot Stove

Week of 12/8- 12/14

Cubs sign Carlos Pena. Some may question paying a .196 hitter 10 million but as a Cub fan I like the move. Despite the low average Pena is still a good power source hitting 28 HR last season and will likely hit in the 4th or 5th spot of the lineup. Even with the low AVG Pena still works a ton of walks. Pena is essentially a lighter version of Dunn but for less money and commitment and a better glove. Pena's 28 HR total should likely increase with a move to the NL, Wrigley and a increase in FB% from his 40.6% mark last season(career mark 45.1). Pena should also expect a increase in AVG given his low BABIP of .222(career mark .279). Pena isn't a .270 hitter but he could manage to hit in the .250's which would take his OBP closer to the .380 range and his OPS would move above .800. Pena should post Run Production Total above 170 with HR total in the 35 range. Bottom Line: Pena is a legit 1B option who you can likely get at a CI or UTILITY price.

White Sox Re-Sign Paul Konerko. Perhaps the biggest head scratching move this offseason. From a fantasy standpoint Konerko is coming off a great 2010 season .312/39/.977 stat line (AVG/HR/OPS). However to expect a mirror image 2011 would not be wise. The .312 AVG was the product of a .326 BABIP 41 points higher than his career mark so given his increased K rate and a bounce back in BABIP expect a AVG closer to a .270 mark which is still respectable. Konerko has no underlying numbers that would indicate a dramatic decrease in HR totals so to pencil him in for 35 isn't foolish. As for the lofty OPS in the high 9's I can't see Konerko matching the SLUG% of .584 from last year but regardless his OPS should still be in the mid 8's which is worthy of a starting 1B in any league. Bottom Line: Injuries are always a concern. Watch Konerko's stock in preseason publications if he is listed as a Top 5-8 1B then I wouldn't pay that kind of price however if he is ranked in the high 10's then I would snag him after the 7th Rd.

Mariners sign Jack Cust (.272/13/.833). Cust fell out of favor in the A's organization over the last three seasons. Cust is one of the Power hitting big K high walk players that every organization seems to have now. With Seattle Cust will likely get plenty of chances for this offensively challenged team mostly as a DH which fits Cust like a glove. Cust isn't the .272 hitter he showed in a brief stint last season he's more like a .240 hitter that can still maintain a high enough OBP to achieve a OPS in the mid 700's. Even in Safeco Cust should still maintain HR totals in the high 20's if he is given regular playing time which could be his biggest hurdle in 2011. Bottom Line: A player worth monitoring in Spring Training if things go right nab him with a 23rd Rd pick who produces solid power and run production totals.

Royals sign Jeff Francouer and Melky Cabrera. I group these two signings for one reason both should be mentioned because they are regular everyday players for a MLB team but both should be avoided in any fantasy draft because neither is very good. Francouer has more moments than Cabrera while Cabrera is the steadier producer of the two. Both will likely find roster time on some team in your league but as a advisor I would suggest it not be yours.

Braves sign George Sherrill. Terrible season in 2010 would suggest little value for 2011. Sherrill is worth monitoring simply because at this time the Braves have no proven closer and Sherril has had success in that role in the past. Bottom Line: A Spring Training situation worth monitoring.

Padres acquire Jason Bartlett from Rays. For those Bartlett owners who invested based on his 2009 campaign I would recommend putting stock in underlying numbers. Bartlett's 2009 was a fluke however I believe he is a better player than the 2010 version would suggest. Bartlett should benefit from the spacious confines of Petco so expect a AVG in the .280 range. Also given the Padres projected struggles on offense look for them to be super aggressive on the base paths this season so a return to the 20SB plateau should be a given and he could push 30 once again. Bartlett should bat high in the lineup which should make him a potential 90 Run player. The move also allows Reid Brignac to become a full time player this year which could excite some owners out there but no me. Bottom Line: Bartlett should be targeted as a MI option or as a SB stat filer sometime after the 19th round or so.

O's Re-Sign Koji Uehera. Had success in a brief stint as closer last year after being booted from the rotation. Uehera's value is 100% tied to the closers role so at this point he is another player to monitor come Spring Training.

O's acquire JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris from Twins for Brett Jacobsen and Jim Hoey. Hoey and Jacobsen are both minor league pitchers who have no value at this time. Harris will likely be in the minors at the start of the 2011 campaign so that leaves us with old J.J. Hardy. I loved Hardy going into last season but injuries and ineffectiveness plagued the 2010 season. Hardy's value is in his power when he was the 20+ HR hitter with the Brewers in 07 and 08 he posted HR/FB% of 12.0 and 14.1 in 09 and 2010 when he posted HR totals of 11 and 6 his HR/FB% were 8.3 and 6.1. If Hardy can split the difference he will have some value as a MI or more likely a Free Agent pickup during the season. This would give him a HR number from 15-20 to go with a .270ish AVG in what should be a decent lineup.

Mariners sign Miguel Olivo. Perhaps for the first time in his career Olivo will likely catch upwards of 125 games if not more. Olivo provides solid pop out of the C position and last year posted a respectable .269 AVG to go with it. Olivo will not match his .269 total from last year (.346 BABIP) so those 15-18 HR's don't look as great next to a AVG in the .230-.240 range. Olivo is a solid option as your number 2 guy but for whatever reason Olivo usually ends up as a number one for the guy who waits until the 20th Rd to nab their first C.

Angels sign Scott Downs. Another RP who's value is tied to a closers job. Downs could very well replace a up and down Fernando Rodney at some point this season. Will that happen in Spring Training?

A's sign Hideki Matsui(.274/21/.820). You would have thought Matsui was terrible last season but after I looked at his statline it more or less mirrored his career. It's funny how the pinstripes change the perception of a player, turning solid players into superstars. Matsui will be planted in the 4th or 5th spot so he should once again push 90 RBI. The move to Oakland could hurt his HR totals but no reason he won't once again top 20 with another solid AVG year and as always a solid OPS to boot. The only concern would be the three year upward trend in K rate which could be a sign of a slower bat and a aging player. Bottom Line: Matsui is a solid player with little risk however if you prefer more of a breakout start Matsui doesn't fit that mold.

Phillies sign Cliff Lee(3.18/1.00/7.84). Out of nowhere the Phillies rip Lee from the grasp of the Yankees and Rangers for less money than both attended to pay. Lee is no doubt a worthy number 1 pitcher but it would be hard to expect a improvement over last year even if he is moving from the AL to the NL. In his 2009 Phillies audition Lee posted a 3.22 ERA/1.24WHIP/7.03K/9 in 12 starts however only 6 were of the Quality variety. Lee will be selected as a number 1 pitcher but given his lower K/9 I feel he is slotted better as a number 2. Bottom Line: Another year with a ERA close to 3.00 expect a higher WHIP because I just cant imaging another season with a K/BB rate of 10.28 and a K/9 in the mid 7's this likely won't return the value of a Top 30 overall player but solid none the less.

Pirates sign Lyle Overbay. Crickets.

Yankees. In response to the Red Sox Crawford and Gonzalez acquisitions and not landing Lee the Yankees fire back by acquiring Russell Martin and signing Mark Prior to a Minor League Deal. Take that. It seems hard to believe but Martin is only 28 heading into the 2011 season so he still could bounce back after two injury plagued and under performing seasons. Martin is expected to battle Jesus Montero for the everyday C job while Posada will man the DHing duties which should benefit his offensive output next season or at least slow down the decline. Getting back to Martin. At best Martin is a .280 AVG with 12-15 HR and can chip in 10 SB's. This is good enough for your Number 2 option however more often than not Martin is selected as a 1 and since he could be the Yankees number 1 this year I can already see people circling him as a bounce back guy. Even if Martin bounces back offensively he still won't be the 20 SB threat he was in 07 and 08 which made him a Top 5 to 10 Catching option. Prior is interesting simply because it's Prior. Pitched primarily in the Independent League before being picked up by the Rangers last season posting high K totals and mixed results. Certainly a situation worth monitoring but hard to imagine something even resembling his success with the Cubs.