Though we here at the Factory specialize in Fantasy Baseball strategery, we also have a formula for a succesful NFL season. We here at the Factory live by 8 simple rules come draft day. If you follow these 8 simple rules we will not guarantee anything better than a last place finish but at least you will feel good on draft day.
1. If you within the Top 5 Draft a RB. In years past this was the trend. In fact draft boards across the country five years ago had the entire first round filled with the position. With the explosion of the passing game and less give me the rock running backs the old method has faded as it should have. With the limited 300+ carry backs available you should take advantage of the oppurtunity if it is given to you. Besides come rounds three and four plenty of nice options will be available at both WR and QB.
2. Don't be the trade builder. Every league out their has one guy who works the trade angle at the draft. So what if they drafted Peyton Manning with the 2nd pick, they'll take Joe Flacco with the 3rd and Eli Manning with the 4th. Needless to say this is propabally going to make their other positions somewhat scarce. If P. Manning doesn't get hurt neither Flacco or Eli will ever see the field unless it's the Colts Bye Week, at the same time another owner should be hesitant in trade negotiations because the QB loaded team likely has little to no leverage.
3. Avoid the stables. For years many of owner have attempted to nab the collection of Broncos RB's. One year I watched an owner draft Davis and Gary with their top two picks only to see Anderson rush for over 1K. The next year a owner actually spent three of their first four selections on a Bronco back. Many owners will attempt to emulate this with the Cowboys this year. If you select Barber you are likely to have intrest in Jones and will likely take a later round selection on Chance. If you are lucky enough to have all three then then you will have the weekly grind of choosing the right one for that week. Though two of the three will likely have nice seasons I would rather take a less flashy but more stable selection. Let someone else deal with the headache.
4. NFL not a sprint. Every year someone comes out of nowhere and achieves greatness, Usually a RB or WR. The next season they find themselves on top of many drafts based on one year of success. I prefer to go with the proven commoditiy. Miles Austin for example is a Top 10 WR in many publications. Austin was great last season but in two other seasons he was nothing more than an occasional target late in games. I tend to be less optimistic about the one year breakouts then most people.
5. Don't project injury. Football is a contact sport and people get hurt. That's just the nature of the business. Are some people more susceptable to injury why of course but when I draft anyone I want to add depth behind them anyway regardless of injury history. Build around them properly and injury will not end your season.
6. Know your scoring setup. Believe it or not about 50-60% of players have no idea how your league is set up. They come to drafts with a book and a highlighter and say let's go. For example if you do not play in a turnover league a QB such as Jay Cutler would likely be a Top 6 option at the position given his TO tendancies however one would think his stock would take a hit in a TO league. A WR such as Wes Welker in the past was much more valuable in a PPR league then in a yardage league.
7. Go by projections and not past campaigns. Whither you do your own or have faith in another companies go by the expected production rather than in past seasons. A simple assistant coaching change can improve or kill ones value the people who produce these magazines are aware of these moves and their numbers usually include these minor adjustments. Though no projections will be exact in all cases they do offer you an idea of how much production can be expected from your squad.
8. Don't be the dumbass who drafts a K before Rd. 14. Every draft someone tries to outsmart the room and drafts a K in RD 9. Yes K's score a ton of points but in a standard 12 team league about 18-19 K are FA. So each week you could find the K for a team that you think is going to win, generally if you win a game you score points, generally if you score points your K does well. You can add and drop your K each week and collectively your group can match the production of a Top 5-10 K.
9. Don't be the dumbass who drafts a DEF before RD 15. Please see the explenation above and replace K with DEF.
So what has the Factory ommitted. Post your rules to live by for succesful draft in the Comment section.
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