Once again we here at the Factory are going to take a look at players who are leading the leagues in some numbers that can't be found in a box score. These numbers are known as underlying indicators in the business. These numbers are used to determine whither or not players have been somewhat lucky or unlucky over the so far this season. We will look at some hitting and pitching statistics and perhaps they will provide you with some answers to your roster questions.
BABIP- The % of ball put in play that produce a hit. The league average is around .300 so if a player has a BABIP in the .250 range you should expect his average to improve from here forward. The reverse can be said if the players BABIP is in the .350 range a regression in AVG. should be expected. Please note some players have shown throughout there career to have a average above or below the .300 mark so if a player has a track record of three seasons or so please refer to that mark.
BABIP Best
1. Austin Jackson .415
2. Josh Hamilton .399
3. Justin Morneau .385
4. Fred Lewis .381
5. Ichiro Suzuki .379
5. David Freese .379
6. David Wright .377
7. Adrian Beltre .376
8. Robinson Cano .370
9. Brett Gardner .369
10. Martin Prado .365
BABIP Worst
1. Aaron Hill .182
2. Jose Bautista .218
3. Carlos Pena .220
4. Carlos Quentin .223
5. Pedro Feliz .227
6. Carlos Lee .234
7. Mark Teixeira .240
8. Shane Victorino .243
9. Gordon Beckham .243
10. Adam Lind .244
HR/FB%- This number is a little more difficult to disect. The league average is irrelevant for this statistic as slap hitters like Bourn, Andrus, Pierre and the like have a % well below 5. Typically a legit power hitter such as Howard, Fielder, Pena will have a number in the high teens to low 20's. So currently Mike Napoli leads MLB with a 23.1% HR/FB rate so that total doesn't seem to out of whack in league terms so to find the true value with this number one must look at both a players career totals as well as their FB%. Should one increase their FB% then if their HR/FB% rate remains the same then obviously that players HR total will increase. So for this list I will honor the leaders in HR/FB% as well as the leaders in FB%.
HR/FB% Best
1. Mike Napoli 23.1
2. Miguel Cabrera 22.2
3. Carlos Pena 22.2
4. David Ortiz 21.4
5. Joey Votto 21.1
6. Colby Rasmus 20.0
7. Ryan Howard 20.
8. Paul Konerko 20.0
9. Justin Upton 20.0
10. Josh Hamilton 19.8
FB%
1. Mark Reynolds 61.6
2. Jose Bautista 56.2
3. Alfonso Soriano 53.2
4. Aaron Hill 52.0
5. Josh Willingham 51.6
6. Colby Rasmus 50.7
7. Carlos Quentin 50.3
8. Alex Gonzalez 50.2
9. Clint Barmes 49.7
10. Kevin Youklis 49.5
BB/K- A rather simple stat. It is simply your BB/K the thought is a player who works walks has a better eye and sees the ball better than a player who doesn't work a walk. Often a sign that a players improvements have less to do with luck than just improved skill. If a player has a breakout season and his BB/K rate improves it is often considered that the player has improved his skill level.
BB/K Best
1. Albert Pujols 1.42
2. Chipper Jones 1.36
3. David Eckstein 1.27
4. Yunel Escobar 1.27
5. Magglio Ordonez 1.23
6. Jeff Keppinger 1.16
7. Joe Mauer 1.15
8. Aubrey Huff 1.13
9. Chase Utley 1.11
10. Kevin Youklis 1.07
BB/K Worst
1. Adam Jones .13
2. Carlos Gonzalez .17
3. Mike Napoli .23
4. Austin Jackson .25
5. Ian Desmond .26
6. Jonny Gomes .26
7. Alex Gonzalez .27
8. Howie Kendrick .27
9. Fred Lewis .27
10. Christian Guzman .27
Now let's take a look at some of the underlying numbers for pitchers up to this point of 2010.
BABIP- Much like hitters the league average is around .300 therefore if a pitcher surrenders hits at a higher rate it has more to do with bad luck than lack of skill. Like BABIP for a hitter check a players career mark if applicable to find a players baseline.
BABIP BEST
1. Tim Hudson .232
2. Jamie Moyer .235
3. Jeff Niemann .236
4. Mat Latos .238
5. Ted Lilly .243
6. Colby Lewis .252
7. Matt Cain .252
8. Ian Kennedy .254
9. Ubaldo Jimenez .256
10. C.J. Wilson .256
BABIP WORST
1. Randy Wells .361
2. Zach Duke .359
3. Scott Feldman .352
4. Justin Masterson .349
5. Francisco Liriano .348
6. Wandy Rodriguez .343
7. Dan Haren .342
8. James Shields .339
9. Felipe Paulino .338
10. Kevin Millwood .336
Strand Rate or LOB%- Another league average statistic that is used to determine bad or good luck. This is the % of runners who get on base but fail to score. As a league around 72-75% of runners fail to score so if a pitcher has a number well above or below this a increase or decrease in ERA should be expected.
LOB% Best
1. Ubaldo Jimenez 87.8
2. Jeff Niemann 87.2
3. Jamie Garcia 83.5
4. Tim Hudson 83.5
5. Josh Johnson 81.9
6. Andy Pettitte 81.4
7. Clayton Richard 81.3
8. Chris Carpenter 81.3
9. Cole Hamels 81.2
10. Mike Pelfrey 81.0
LOB% Worst
1. Felipe Paulino 61.4
2. Kyle Davies 61.5
3. Wandy Rodriguez 61.6
4. Luke Hochevar 62.4
5. Tim Wakefield 63.4
6. Scott Feldman 64.0
7. Nate Robertson 64.8
8. Aaron Cook 64.8
9. Gavin Floyd 65.4
10. Justin Masterson 65.4
K/BB Rate- Much like for hitters this stat is used to determine if a player has shown increased skill. If a player is in the midst of a breakout season and his K/BB rate hasn't improved it is very likely that somewhere luck is involved.
K/BB Rate Best
1. Cliff Lee 19.00
2. Roy Halladay 6.00
3. Dan Haren 5.19
4. Jered Weaver 4.92
5. Zach Greinke 4.45
6. James Shields 4.18
7. Carlos Silva 4.07
8. Scott Baker 4.05
9. Francisco Liriano 4.00
10. Josh Johnson 3.96
K/BB Worst
1. Aaron Cook 1.03
2. Randy Wolf 1.14
3. Joe Saunders 1.17
4. Mitch Talbot 1.18
5. Nick Blackburn 1.18
6. Tim Hudson 1.22
7. David Bush 1.25
8. Bronson Arroyo 1.32
9. Paul Maholm 1.36
10. Kyle Davies 1.37
FIP- FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP is a mathamatical formula that is calculated in a way that results in a ERA type number. It takes into consideration HR allowed, K's, HBP, BB and FB,GB and LD rates. Basically the number is a ERA based on the pitchers skill set. In this section I will feature the 5 pitchers who have the best and worst ERA-FIP differences and I will include their current ERA and FIP.
ERA FIP E-F DIff
1. Tim Hudson 2.54 4.49 -1.95
2. Jeff Niemann 2.72 4.39 -1.68
3. Jaime Garcia 1.79 3.25 -1.46
4. Ubaldo Jimenez 1.60 2.97 -1.37
5. Livan Hernandez 3.10 4.40 -1.30
6. David Price 2.44 3.73 -1.29
7. Andy Pettitte 2.48 3.67 -1.19
8. Mike Leake 2.92 4.10 -1.18
9. Ian Kennedy 3.77 4.91 -1.14
10. Randy Wolf 4.92 6.04 -1.13
ERA FIP E-F Diff
1. Randy Wells 5.21 3.49 1.72
2. Kyle Davies 6.06 4.73 1.33
3. Gavin Floyd 4.80 3.47 1.33
4. Justin Masterson 5.21 4.04 1.17
5. Felipe Paulino 4.40 3.28 1.12
6. Scott Feldman 5.32 4.22 1.10
7. Luke Hochevar 4.96 3.87 1.09
8. Brandon Morrow 4.50 3.43 1.07
9. Wandy Rodriguez 5.64 4.61 1.03
10. Francisco Liriano 3.11 2.16 .94
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