Fantasy Fundamentals From The Factory: Sometimes You Got To Let Go

The Factory is once again taking the pulse of the player market in Fantasy Baseball. This time we are looking at players who are on the majority of rosters but have yet to produce. In the early going several big time players have gotten off to slow starts. Aramis Ramirez, Alexei Ramirez, Jake Peavy, Adam Jones, are just a handful of top selections who have came up empty thus far. It is obvious to every fantasy owner, or should be, that these players will not be dropped unless you are playing in the shallowest of leagues. After looking at the latest owned % listings though several names made me wonder if the owners of these players should cut the cord. These players weren't likely top 10 selections but all find themselves owned in over 55% of Yahoo leagues yet their production has yet to reward the loyalty shown by owners. After crunching the numbers at the Factory here are the verdicts.

Batters

Jason Kubel owned in 63% of leagues. 2010 Stat Line: .203AVG/2HR/7Runs/10RBI/OSB/.648OPS. Kubel had a breakout campaign last season posting a .300AVG with 28 HR and 73 Runs and topped the 100 RBI mark with a .908 OPS. Kubel benefitted from a .324 BABIP last season which brought his .260 to .270 career mark to the .300 level. This season the BABIP Gods have made him pay with a mark of .246 which helps explains the Mendoza AVG. Kubel simply isn't as good as his 2009 season would indicate so his Draft Ranking was inflated to begin with. Kubel is a .270 Hitter with 20 HR power and is a nice Fantasy Play but players with that skill set should not be owned come hell or high water. In a normal 10 or 12 team league .270 hitters with 20 HR potential are often available on the Waiver Wire.

Verdict: If you have been this patient then stay true to form for another week. If the numbers are still missing then drop Kubel for a hot player. He will likely be available at a later date.

Mark DeRosa owned in 55% of leagues. DeRosa's has been terrible thus far posting a .200/1/8/7/0/.569 stat line. DeRosa's fantasy value took an immediate hit once he lost his 2B eligibility coming into this season. DeRosa posted a good stat line for a 2B last season with 23HR to go with a 150+ Run production total. This season DeRosa has been a victim of a .230 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate of 5.3 which is nearly half his career mark.

Verdict: Much like Kubel the Waiver Wire is full of players who are capable of 20 HR with a .250AVG. So unless DeRosa begins to spend increased time at the keystone a owner should not waste a roster spot on a disappointing DeRosa.

Pitching

Mark Buehrle owned in 68% of leagues. What a difference a Perfect Game can make in the perception of a player. Buehrle is a classic example of a Pitcher who is better in real life than in Fantasy. Buehrle's stat line thus far 2-4(2QS) 5.30 ERA 1.42WHIP 3.86 K/9. Not much to like here. Buehrle is striking out less batters than normal and walking slightly more for a decrease in K/BB to 1.60 compared to a career mark of 2.51. The only underlying stat that goes against Buehrle is his LOB% which is a high 59.1 %.

Verdict: Despite the perfect game Buehrle has been about a .500 pitcher over the last 4 years and has only had two seasons of a FIP below 4.00. So if a pitcher with a ERA above 4 who doesn't strike out anyone sounds good to you then reamin patient otherwise discard and move on.

Edwin Jackson owned in 60% of leagues. With a record of 1-3 with 1 QS and a ERA of 8.07 a WHIP of 1.76 and K/9 of 4.73. No other way to explain the 2010 season than consitently pathetic. Jackson is one of those hard throwers who has never really managed to overpower hitters. Jackson has had only one full season with a K/9 over 7Jackson has had some misfortune thus far. A BABIP of .362 to go with a 57.7 LOB% and a 14.7 HR/FB compared to a career mark of 10. This all adds up to a FIP of 5.16 which is much better than the 8.07 mark.

Verdict: Once again why wait for a pitcher who you are hoping for a ERA North of 4.00 who cannot strikeout anyone? You are much better off using a matchup pitcher from day to day or week to week.

Rick Porcello owned in 59% of leagues. A record of 2-2 with 2 QS and another 8+ ERA with a WHIP of 1.91 and a K/9 of 5.84. Porcello is another hard thrower that has yet managed to miss bats. Porcello is still just 21 years old and only has two years of organized baseball under his belt. His K/9 has improved over last season as has his BB/9 which is a good sign. Porcello has run into some bad luck with a .419 BABIP and a LOB% of 60.3. His FIP suggest a 4.35 ERA nearly half the actual number which indicates a correction should come his way.

Verdict: Though Porcello has more upside than the other pitchers on this list you would still be better off exploring other options and keeping one eye on the growth of Porcello. If Porcello's K totals improve then a permannent roster spot is worth considering.


*As always the Factory will gladly assist with any questions regarding Fantasy Baseball. Please contact via email to jshbr@aol.com