Fantasy Fundamentals From The Factory: Overlooked Output or Wisely Disregarded?

In the past I have posted a Waiver Wire Roundup focused on Available players within the 64/60. I decided to take a different approach with this post. This post takes a look at players who are ranked in the Top 100 thus far according to Yahoo's scoring system but yet are still owned in less than 50% of all Yahoo Leagues. Currently there are 6 players, 3 hitters and 3 pitchers, that fit this criteria. I have analyzed the players to see if people are missing out on some good value or are they avoiding the inevitable blowup that lies ahead? So if you have been waiting to pickup one of these players in your league but are still not sold, just kick back and let the Factory work for you.

Batters

#85 overall OF Will Venable. Owned by the 41129ers in the 64/60 but only owned in 15% of Yahoo Leagues. Venable currently has a stat line of .244AVG/4HR/16Runs/12RBI/7SB/.815OPS. Venable doesn't have any crazy underlying stats that scream out. His BABIP is in the low .200's which is a reason for the low AVG. But given Venable's track record a .250-.260 AVG is all that should be expected. Venable projects as a 10-15 HR player so his current pace as a high 20 low 30 player is the result of a increased FB rate. The speed is legit and the Padres look to be a team who will be very aggressive on the base paths this season. The biggest issue with Venable will be playing time. Unless the Padres move Adrian Gonzalez this season then Venable, Gwynn, Hairston and Blanks will all share time in a crowded OF. So Venable doesn't have the benefit of playing through a slump like a full time player does.

Verdict: Venable should be owned in all formats but his playing time needs monitored.


#91 overall Jose Bautista. Another player owned by the 41129ers. Bautista is owned in only 13% of Yahoo leagues. Bautista is now in his 6th season as a professional and over his career he has been nothing more than a Bench player who can play 3B and both corner OF positions. Bautista is now the everyday 3B in the absence of Edwin Encarnacion. Bautista's stat line is .221AVG/6HR/16/Runs/20RBI/3SB/.782OPS. Bautista has always shown decent power as a reserve player so the 6HR isn't that shocking. As the season goes on however his increased FB% should stabilize as will his HR/FB rate of 15.8%(Career Mark 10.7%) but if Bautista can get enough AB a 20+ HR season is reasonable. Bautista has been victim of a low BABIP of .240 but a AVG around the .240 mark is all you should expect.

Verdict: Given the weak state of the 3B position Bautista could fill your 3B spot over a limited time but if Bautista is counted on beyond that your chances of winning the title are less than 1%.


#95 overall 3B David Freese. Another proud member of the 41129ers. Freese is currently owned in 46% of Yahoo Leagues. Freese has had a great start posting a .360AVG/3HR/9Runs/19RBI/1SB/.951. Like Kinsler and Utley of years past Freese's breakout season could come one year later. Many targeted Freese as a breakout last season but after a rather forgettable 09 Freese was mostly forgotten on draft day. Freese has been the beneficiary of some underlying numbers thus far. A .438 BABIP thanks to a 22% LD rate explains the high AVG and you would also like a better walk rate than the 6.2% thus far. On the bright side Freese had a great minor league track record and posted a stat line of .306/26HR/83Runs/91RBI over 510 AB at AAA in 08.

Verdict: Of the aforementioned players Freese has the most upside in my mind and has the most job security. A .280 AVG to go with 20+ HR and Solid Run and RBI productions should be expected for many years to come.


Pitchers

#30 overall Livan Hernandez. Owned by the Tude Smackers in the 64/60. Hernandez has been obtained in 44% of Yahoo leagues thus far. Hernandez's stat line features a 4-1 record with 4QS a ERA of .99, WHIP of 1.02 and a remarkable 2.72 K/9. Yes the ageless wonder averages less than 3 K's over 9 innings. If that isn't enough to scare you away then how about Hernandez's .187 BABIP and a 97.6 LOB%. The most telling sign of how fortunate Hernandez's 2010 has been thus far is his FIP (Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Pitching. Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.) Hernandez's FIP is 4.63.

Verdict: If you have acquired his services appreciate what he has done for you but drop him quicker than a 20 at a strip joint.


#34 overall Doug Fister. The first player who has not been owned in the 64/60 thus far. Fister is owned in just 38% of Yahoo Leagues despite a 2-1 record with 4QS, a 1.29ERA and a .80 WHIP. Fister isn't a big K guy only posting a K/9 of 4.11 but thus far he has been a very effective GB pitcher with a rate of 51.9%. There are warning signs however. A .218 BABIP and no HR's given up have certainly aided in the hot start. Fister however pounds the strike zone as his 1.29 BB/9 would indicate and his 2.69 FIP suggest a productive season should Fister's skill set remain unchanged.

Verdict: I prefer K pitchers over the control guys every time but Fister is a nice Matchup Add when a additional start is needed from time to time.


#92 overall Brett Cecil. Another player who is unowned in the 64/60. Cecil has only garnered 13% of the Yahoo League's attention thus far. Cecil unlike the aforementioned pitchers has the power stuff in his arsenal. Cecil's stat line thus far is a 2-1 record with 2 QS a 2.61 ERA with a .77 WHIP and a 9.15 K/9. Cecil has also been the beneficiary of a .212 BABIP. Also a increased FB rate could lead to trouble but thus far his HR/FB rate is below his career mark. Cecil has had pinpoint control thus far with a 1.74 BB/9 and a 5.25 K/BB rate thus far.

Verdict: Cecil could be a breakout pitcher this season. Still only 23 years old and in just his second season Cecil could be another post hype player who breaks through this season. Cecil does play in the Beast of the AL East so if your league offers a Bench I would go ahead a grab him. If your league doesn't offer a Bench option Cecil may be better served as another matchup option.


* The Bear Creek FP Factory provides free Player Breakdowns upon request. For player breakdowns or other fantasy advice, send request via Email to jshbr@aol.com.