Monday, April 12, 2010

Not One Week Does A Season Make

Every year it happens. Regardless of the league you are in after the first week owners push the panic button known as Add/Drop. It happens in the 64/60 it happens in the NFBC from coast to coast no league is free of the "hand on the trigger" owner. Why is it though that we make these moves? In the long run how many of these added players perform at an elite level over the course of a entire season. Tuffy Rhodes anyone? How about last years Emilio Bonifacio? THis season Delmon Young, Edgar Renteria, Jeff Francouer are among a group of players who likely may have begun the season on the Waiver Wire. Are these players going to continue at their current pace all season? THe answer is NO, now can these players warrant their roster spot over the course of a 155+ game season? That is the answer that decides if the move was worth it.

With nearly every Add you have a corresponding Drop. More often than not the dropped player is someone who has gotten out of the gate slowly. THat slow start has aggervated his owner to the point that any option will be better than the current one. Last season Nick Swisher got off to a slow start and was dropped only to be picked up and continue on his way to a 29HR season. Aaron Hill was also drafted and dropped last season within the first two weeks of the season. Most will remember what kind of season Hill had in 09. It would be interesting to find Add/Drop trends around various leagues to see if the players who are added even manage to outperform those they are dropped for.

I follow the one month deadline. I worked for months on my draft preperation. I refuse to let that month of hard work go for nothing. With every player I draft comes expectations and those expectations cannot be assesed in one week. Upon occasion I will depart from this strategy if one of these two situations arise. First- If someone drops a player who you value over your own player. Second- If someone provides value in a need area. For example if you are short on a closer and a closer is available you would be willing to part with a starter. If one of these two prerequisites aren't met than save yourself the time and have faith in your draft prep. For every productive early season player that is picked up there are two that give you a .200 AVG and are released within a week. So next time you are furious over a 0-4 with 3K's think about all of the time devoted to your draft prep and think of the Aaron Hill's of the world. More often than not you will be glad you did.

No comments: