Fantasy Fundamentals From The Factory

With less than three weeks of games it is really difficult to determine players who are poised for a breakout or just benefiting from the Gods of Baseball. But since I am a nerd and have nothing better to do on a Wednesday Night, I decided to look at 5 position players and 5 pitchers who are on rosters in most fantasy formats and who all are owned within the 64/60. These players came into the season of many peoples radars and all are performing well over expectations. The hitters all came into the season outside of the top 300 according to Yahoo's preseason rankings. The Pitchers also are outside the top 300. The player well appear with their preseason rankings along with this seasons stats. The Factory will then break it down to see if the early season returns can be expected over the entire season or should owners attempt to sale high.

Hitters (Yahoo Rank) AVG./HR/Runs/RBI/SB/OPS

Jose Guillen (980) .368/5/12/10/1/1.102. The ageless wonder. Guillen has never been a Fantasy superstar but when healthy he has always been a viable FA option. The 980 rank more than likely took into account the injury risk that is Jose. He is currently on pace for around 50 HR's so obviously this level of production cannot be expected to continue. Guillen's .368 AVG is thanks to a .372 BABIP and the 5 HR is a product of the 26.3% FB rate for Guillen. Should Guillen remain injury free he is worthy of a roster spot as he will likely bat in the middle of the order and should be counted on for around 23-25 HR with a .280+ AVG.

Scott Podsednik (380) .457/0/5/6/7/1.006. Podsednik has always had value as a good source of SB. With Podsednik at little risk of losing playing time many targeted him as a late RD speed option. They have been rewarded with a .457 AVG over the first 2.5 Weeks. Podsednik has benefited from a incredible .512 BABIP rate thanks to a increase in Line Drives. So obviously a regression in AVG. will come but one stat that is worth noting is Podsednik's improvement in BB/K rate. His career mark is .57/1 this year Pods has a 1.4/1 rate. This stat is worth keeping a eye on. If Pods can keep this rate up or even remotely close to this he could be a legit 50-60 SB guy.

Casey McGehee(472) .396/4/9/12/0/1.206. McGehee had a nice season last year but despite his success, he mostly came into the season with little fanfare. Given his eligibility at both 2B and 3B in most leagues this came as a surprise to me. McGehee's .366 BABIP has aided in the .396 mark and a 21.1% HR/FB rate is the cause for the 40 HR rate. So regression in both should be expected but McGehee has improved his plate discipline thus far with a BB/K rate of 1.4 compared to his career mark of .51. Should this trend continue a +.300 AVG should be expected.

Ty Wigginton (713) .297/5/8/11/0/1.114. Ty Wigginton and McGehee are very similar. BOth had good 09 campaigns yet most owners simply overlooked them on draft day despite the production and multi position eligibility. Unlike McGehee though Wigginton's 2010 campaign could see better days. Wigginton's 40 HR pace won't continue as his 38.5% HR/FB rate is to thank. Wigginton can easily be a 20 HR guy however. On the bright side Wigginton is showing better plate discipline in the early going and making better contact. Wiggintons strong AVG is despite a .222 BABIP mark. Should the plate discipline and contact continue Wigginton could easily be another .300 threat with pop which is a rarity at the 2B position.

Ivan Rodriguez (870) .444/0/10/7/1/1.079. Every time I thought this guy was done he resurfaces somewhere and plays well. Generally the team also performs as the Nationals have at least record wise in the early going. Rodriguez will hit .400 when Ted Williams once again walks this earth which seems unlikely. Rodriguez has a Slugging % for a BABIP of .476 and Rodriguez has managed to make contact at a much higher rate this year with a K Rate of only 6.7 hard to imagine the ageless wonder setting a career best at age old.

Pitching (Yahoo Preseason Ranking) QS/K/ERA/WHIP/K per 9

Mike Pelfrey (343) 3/16/.86/1.00/6.86. A bright spot on thus a dim Mets season thus far. Pelfrey had a decent season last year and the early results for 2010 have been brilliant. The biggest cause for joy and likely continued success if the improved K rate. However Pelfrey's excellent start isn't the result of improved skill alone. Pelfrey has given up 0 HR thus far and has stranded 90.5% of runners left on base. Also Pelfrey has benefited from a .231 BABIP. Given the presumed increase in these numbers Pelfrey will not be the elite option he has been but should Pelfrey continue to post a decent K total he will eliminate the need for the luck to be successful.

Ricky Romero (513) 3/22/1.57/.74/8.61. Unlike many of the players on this list Romero was a Top Draft Pick and a legit Prospect just a few seasons ago. Romero had a very solid season at times last year while at other times he looked like the young pitcher he was. Romero is only 25 years old so his best years should be ahead of him. Is this the year? A improved K rate and lower BB allowed thus far could point toward a great season. Currently Romero is posting a 3.67 K/BB rate nearly double his career mark. Romero has had luck on his side thus far with a .189 BABIP and a 84.3% strand rate. If Romero can keep the K/BB rate at a similar level throughout the season his prime could begin with the 2010 season.

Brad Penny (850) 3/13/1.29/.95/5.57. Is this the latest Dave Duncan reclamation project turned gold or has Penny had Lady Luck on his side? As with nearly any pitcher who post numbers so good luck has played a part. Penny has a BABIP of .269 which isn't extremely low. His strand rate is 80% which would be hard to obtain over 35 starts. Penny like the above players have benefited from improved skills just as much as the luck. Penny currently has a K/BB rate of 4.33 and has really limited the walks thus far. Despite Penny's velocity he has never been a big K guy and has typically had control issues. This season Penny is still not the power pitcher but his BB have been minimal. If he can sustain a K/BB ratio similar to the current mark Penny will join the Dave Stewart, Chris Carpenter and countless other Dave Duncan miracles.

Barry Zito ( 439) 3/9/1.86/.88/4.19. Zito has lived up to his contract for this season thus far but can it continue. Unlike the previous pitchers Zito's numbers could really blow up. Like all the other pitchers Zito has had a lot of things going for him. A .209 BABIP along with 0 HR allowed can really make life easier on a pitcher. Zito has also improved his control in the early going posting a BB/9 of 2.33 compared to his career mark of 3.71. All of these things have lead to the strong start to 2010. Unlike the other pitchers mentioned Zito hasn't been able to match his career K mark. Zito has posted a 4.19K/9 mark well below his 6.73 career mark and at a level that could really cause these above numbers to blow up. Zito is the picture of a sale now option only dark days appear to be ahead.

Dallas Braden (443) 3/16/2.70/.75/7.20. Braden has started well before only to show his true self as the season progressed. Braden has benefited from a .198 BABIP but other numbers remain consistent with career marks. Braden has also improved his K rate this season and to add to the success has decreased his BB totals. Braden currently is posting a 5.33 K/BB mark which is double his career mark. Braden will have a hard time sustaining these levels over 35 starts but if Braden can double his career mark with a 3.5 or 4 to 1 K to BB rate Braden will be a nice option throughout the season.

* Please keep in mind that it is hard to determine any trends in less than three weeks of actions but when numbers are so extreme you know a regression is in the future.