Sunday, February 5, 2012

64/60 Sports Spreadology



I could spend a few minutes analytically breaking down all the in's and outs of Super Bowl XLVI. Truth is as long as the end result is extra cash in your pocket, aside from rolling granny at the grocery store, you don't care how it got there. Nearly 65% of the betting public has action on the Giants yet the line has not wavered in correlation with this action. Combining this little factoid with Vegas having made a profit from the Super Bowl in 19 of the last 21 seasons leans my money to the side of the Patriots. There is no need to go X's and O's to justify this selection. Sure recent history suggest the Giants have the Patriots number, but take away David Tyree's Stickem soaked uniform and four Patriot turnovers the last meeting, have they been the better team? My response to this would be no. The Patriots will play at a up tempo pace utilizing the short passing game as well as BenJarvus Green Ellis, minimizing the Giants biggest strength, pass rush, and exploiting it's biggest weakness, the LB and secondary. Patriots win 35-24. For those looking to maximize your profits that would be action on the OVER.

10 Prop bets to please your wagering pallet.


-National Anthem Over 1:34- Kelly Clarkson has been out of the spotlight here of late and nothing would kick start it like a resounding rendition of the National Anthem. Look for Clarkson to put a little extra umph into the final verse and really sale the BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAVVVVVVVVVVVVVEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!

- In Game Camera Shots of Peyton Manning Under 3.5. In case you have missed it Peyton has been in the news here of late as his departure from the Colts seems a forgone conclusion. Sure Manning may have taken some of the conversation time away from the Super Bowl but he will not overshadow the event itself. Manning will make a cameo it just won't be in excess. (Please Note only in game live camera shots are applicable).

- Tom Brady Over 25.5 Completions. I don't know how many yards Brady will have but he will feed off the short passing game. I see Brady having a 28-34 type of day.

- Tom Brady 1st QTR TD Pass +140. One of the more enticing props on the board. Brady has a 1st QTR TD your $100 turns into $140. To easy.

- BenJarvus Green Ellis Over 47.5 yds rushing. I really expect the Patriots running game to be relied on heavily in this contest. Only problem as a gambler is it's anyones guess as to who the ball carrier will be. I feel Green-Ellis is the safest play of the bunch.

- BenJarvus Green Ellis Over 12.5 carries. Same thought process as the previous just cross your fingers that Green Ellis is the man.

- Danny Woodhead Over 12.5 Rec yds. Look for Woodhead to have two receptions out of the backfield asking for 6.5 a pop isn't too much.

- Wes Welker Over 7 Rec. In case you are unaware Rod Gronkowski has been bothered of late by a High Ankle Sprain. While I think the severity of the injury has been over analyzed during the two week layoff,( Now had the man had to deliver packages out of a brown truck he's a no go (This statement has humor to those in a particular circle, if you are not in the circle please disregard statement), Gronkowski will likely not be a 100% look for Welker to be Brady's top target on Sunday.

- Chad Ochocinco Over .5 receptions. I may be the only person in America who thinks Ochocinco will play a important role in this contest. Perhaps important role may be overstating it but look for Johnson to haul in 3 catches with one being considered a big play.

- Hakeem Nicks Over 5.5 Receptions. While Victor Cruz may be Mannings top target Nicks could be the better overall talent. Nicks will lead the Giants in receptions and could top this number by halftime.

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