NFL Divisional Playoffs Test Coaches, Vets

Good to be here at 64/60, where the rubber meets the road, the shit hits the fan and these lonely winter nights are filled with bitter NFL prognostications and entirely too many college basketball games and bad late-night TV movies. Right now the NFL weekend is outlined as follows:



SATURDAY


                          Line       Money Line      Total
Baltimore                            +350
DENVER           -10             -500              46.5          4:30

Green Bay            (-130)      None
SAN FRAN      -3  (+110)                            45            8:00

SUNDAY

Seattle                   (-130)            
ATLANTA         -3   (+110)                         46            1:00

Houston                                +350
N. ENGLAND    -10                -500             48            4:30

It’s a slate with four games that look like mirror images of one another.

Baltimore seems to finally be jelling as a defense when it matters most-- if Ray Lewis hadn’t dropped that gimme interception in the first quarter, we would have all had reason to justifiably tout his performance: after missing several weeks with a torn triceps, he returned to a role beyond the token Willis Reed-meets-Swamp Thing-meets-the Haka “dance, limp out, shed a blocker, maybe make a tackle or two, and stroll off to the sidelines” routine. Ray was, *gulp*, effective. Maybe he wants to continue this purple-clad Magical Mystery Tour all the way through Denver with his good buddy Ed “I’m A Hall-of-Famer Too, Dammit” Reed riding shotgun into The Big Razor Blade for the ultimate Revenge Game against Tom Brady and his myriad pass catchers to expel the voodoo that was Billy Cundiff? Maybe he thinks Joe Flacco can channel his laser, rocket arm (Copyright: Peyton Manning, 2009) into 300+ yards against a beatable defense when a QB can get time to throw and stretch the field? Maybe the Ravens’ O-Line has never looked better since Mike Oher moved to right tackle, giving Flacco time to nail Boldin over the middle and Smith deep?

But Denver’s at home, at altitude, has Peyton Manning coming off two weeks’ rest (three if you don’t count the Chiefs, which is fair), and is playing against an aging defense on a short week. Baltimore will have to play the game of their season to beat Denver outright, a team they recently lost to 34-17 in Week 14. It’ll be closer…

The Pick: Denver 27, Baltimore 21

Colin Kaepernick becomes the second 2nd-year QB to make a start in the playoffs, and he’s hoping things go better for him than they did for Andy Dalton, who couldn’t find the end zone even once in the Bengals’ loss to the Texans. CK's at home, has a superior team with a superior line. If he weren't playing opposite Aaron Rodgers, we could probably lock this whole thing down and declare the Niners pure mortal locks and get on with our lives given how well Justin Smith (wait, he's hurt? Oh...) and Navorro Bowman (not much of a tackler down the stretch... Hmmm.) and the rest of the Niners' D plays at The 'Stick.

That's the whole damn problem, kiddos.

Rodgers has played like anyone with common sense should've expected he would: like the man everyone everyone considered was the Best QB in the Universe, got robbed of his title because his crippled line couldn't block the pissed-off Giants' historically great front four in one playoff game, and hasn't had the slightest statistical dip in performance. Of course, if Green Bay doesn't get hosed in Seattle, they host this game. But they're winning Sunday night, and (SPOILER ALERT!) Seattle's going to beat Atlanta anyhow, so who cares? And you know what that means...

The Pick: Green Bay 28, San Francisco 20

Bill Simmons' boyfriend Russell Wilson has done miraculous things in Seattle so far this season, even managing to win a playoff game for that franchise on the road for the first time since I took my first long drag off a Macanudo. People rave about the quality of Atlanta's home crowd and how the Falcons never lose there (except of course for, you know, the last game they played there), but really, Atlanta fans suck anyhow. Any sports population that wouldn't get behind Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine can't possibly genuinely expect Jacquizz Rodgers and Michael Turner and Matty Ice...

(Aside: Rich Eisen demands entirely too much goddamn credit for calling Matt Ryan "The Mattural". He was Matty Ice long before that, so making the leap from one to the other requires the imagination of a 2nd-grader. Rich probably shat himself when he found out Froyo joints sold frozen yogurt, too.)

... to be three of the core players to lead them to their Super Bowl run after that debacle against the Packers in their Super Bowl season and their pathetic offensive performance against the Giants on their road to the title. If Seattle takes a convincing early lead, people could be bailing out on the Georgia Dome by halftime. Atlanta fans are gutless. Fuck them.

Plus they can't run the ball against good teams, as I alluded to earlier. Michael Turner doesn't have a carry over 8 yards against a team who can tackle since Week 5 of 2011. Seattle's defense can play long stretches of lockdown football, and got to play lazy upfront football against the Redskins and a crippled RG3 for three quarters last weekend. No team left in the playoffs runs playaction more convincingly than Seattle, as Wilson's rollout abilities and raw speed more than compensate for any height disadvantage. No fucking way is John Abraham running down Russell Wilson alone, unless it's blindside and luckily, this Sunday afternoon. We're all getting the rematch we deserve in Lambeau next weekend, this time with genuine, bona fide, authentic, Ed Hochuli-approved NFL officials.

The Pick: Seattle 23, Atlanta 10

Congrats on beating the Bengals and kicking a bunch of field goals, Texans. But like Mikayla, we're not impressed. You're the perennial Team That Peaked Too Early, although you at least managed to hold off the Legend of ChuckStrong to win the AFC South. Also, Owen Daniels looks hurt, but still has amazing pass-catching ability, so watch out for that. Or New England might just stick him off the line like the film-hungry, well-coached team they are. It's something to watch for.

People either love or hate the New England Patriots, but after watching them throttle the AFC East for the last decade I've developed a begrudging respect for them that can only be established by successfully gambling on them. The whole world knows that the Patriots can essentially run whatever they want to on offense, because their herd of running backs can always find gaps to run through, and the likes of Welker, Gronkowski (healthy again!), Hernandez, hell, even Brandon Lloyd has come on in December. Sunday marks the first time the entire New England offense has played together all season, at home, against a team they already throttled that had no excuses a month ago on Monday Night Football. Ten points is not too many. Ten points isn't even freaking close. Tom Brady doesn't believe in field goals. Tom Brady believes in extra points. Besides, do you really want to bet against Brady when he's trying to play a Statement Game at Gillette before rolling out west for Manning-Brady V? Didn't think so.

The Pick: New England 42, Houston 21