Cotton Bowl
Arkansas vs. Kansas State +9
Many pundits feel both teams were BCS worthy and who could argue. Arkansas fell victim to the 2 team conference cap while Kansas State fell victim to the Bowl Selection committee's. Both certainly had a better resume than At-Large schools Michigan and Virginia Tech. With both teams inside the Top 10 this matchup is certainly more intruiging than the Orange and Sugar Bowls had to offer. Collin Klein certainly won't be confused with Andrew Luck, but what he does do is move the chains and put up points. Now it is worth noting that this offensive production is happening in the Big 12 so outside of no one the conference doesn't beleive in defense. Look for Tyler Wilson and Co. to fling the ball around prompting a shootout where Kansas State will face to much resistence from the Hogs D.
Bengals vs. Texans Over 38.5
I like the value of the Bengals and points with what I expect to be a very tightly contested battle. However I find it hard to pass up the point total play. Everyone is expecting points to be at a premium and while it won't be a shootout 38.5 isn't to much to ask for. Both teams should establish some resemblence of a running game and with playmakers such as AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels on the outside to expect a 23-20 outcome seems reasonable. Yates and Dalton have exceeded expectations all season the trend continues another week.
Lions vs. Saints -10.5
Over the last month the Saints have been playing at a level that has made a 14-1 Packers team many peoples second choice in the playoffs. I don't subscride to this theory but hard to ignore the recent results. Many will remember last season the Saints were a substantial road favorite last season only to lose in Seattle to the .500 Seahawks in the first round. The Saints are better and at home but the point of the statement is that unexpected shit happens so to have a repeat wouldn't shock me. The Lions can score with anyone and are equipped to handle the Saints by applying pressure with the front four dropping 7 back into coverage. If the Lions can eliminate the penalties and force multiple turnovers a upset could be in the works. Regardless the 10.5 is more than enough.
Falcons vs. Giants -3
Easily my least confident selection on the board. Of all the playoff teams the Giants are the biggest Jekyl and Hyde team the playoffs have to offer. Just when you think they have it figured out they lose to the likes of the Seahawks and Cardinals. The Falcons could have more overall talent then the Giants but away from the Georgia Dome the Falcons have a limited track record of success. I'll go with the hotter of the two teams and the one playing at home.
Steelers vs. Broncos U33.5
At my roots I'm a Over player. My thought process is until the clock expires their is always that remote chance crazy things happen. Nothing worse than taking the Under at 33.5 and going into the half at 20-17 resulting in another half of football with no financial commitment. As much as it pains me I have faith in Tebow to produce next to nothing for four quarters so this wager has more to do with my lack of confidence in the Steelers offense heading into Mile High. Four of the last 6 games the Steelers have scored 14 points or less and the Broncos Defense is their only hope to keep it close. Expect a tightly contested contest for three quarters with the Steelers pulling away in the 4th 20-3 sounds reasonabale.
Alabama vs. LSU +1.5: O40
The Tide certainly seems to be the built in Vegas favorite. How else can you explain the Tigers being a slight underdog after beating the Tide on the road and playing this game in their backyard. If you can turn off your selective memory you would recall the Tide outplayed the Tigers ever so slightly in their last meeting. Yet a goaline stripping of a reception and nightmare performance from special teams sealed their fate. Not much has changed since their last meeting neither team has really been threatend along the way. I have little doubt that McCarron is more settled into his position as is Jordan Jefferson who was still in a transition period last meeting. Expect more offense, with O40 being a solid investment, and another down to the wire meeting against two heavyweights. Anytime two teams seem to be evenly matched I'll take the value. Give me the 1.5 the Tigers bring.
RECAP: Arkansas -9, Bengals/Texans O38.5, Lions +10.5, Giants -3, Steelers/Broncos U33.5, LSU +1.5, LSU/Bama O40
YTD: 42-28
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