Thursday, June 23, 2011

Fantasy Fundamentals From The Factory : Minor League Overview Top 50 Prospects




* PLEASE NOTE ALL STATS REFLECTED IN THIS REPORT ARE FROM FRIDAY JUNE 17TH.

With each and every Fantasy Preview Magazine comes a Top Prospect Report. Most Fantasy Magazines cover prospect that will either begin the season in the majors or who figure to be first in line for call ups. This process covers about 10-15 names but 2011 has been anything but a typical season for rookies. In fact many are already labeling 2011 as the "Year Of The Rookie". With the arbitration deadline having passed at the first of this month it seems as though a highly touted prospect is called up daily. As a fantasy owner this could be your best chance all year at nabbing a top caliber player for cheap. At worst a top prospect could be used as immediate trade bait as owners are willing to pay a premium price for the unknown commodity. So as we head toward the All-Star break who are some of the prospect worth monitoring? For the sake of this post I have took a look at Baseball Prospectus's Top 101 prospect to begin the season. For this post I will break down prospect 1-50 to see who could be up in the very near future to lead you to a league title.

Prospect Already In Majors (Or those who have spent the majority of the season there): Dominic Brown, Aroldis Chapman, Mike Moustakas, Jeremy Hellickson, Eric Hosmer, Kyle Drabek, Zach Britton, Chris Sale, Freedie Freeman, Michael Pineda, Dustin Ackley, Mike Minor, JP Arencibia

Prospects In Single A (Though nothing in the MLB By-Laws state that Single A players aren't eligible for a call up history suggest that most callups occur from Double A forward. With that in mind here is a list of Top 50 prospect who will likely not see any MLB action this season.) Jameson Taillon, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Matzek, Jean Segura, Stetson Allie, Drew Pomeranz, Nick Franklin, Billy Hamilton.

Prospects In Double A (Typically not your first group called up but in the event a player from Double A is that should give you a indication of what is expected from this person.)

Mike Trout- At the start of the season Trout's target date was late 2012 but as the season has played out for Trout and the Angels, 2011 could be the time. Good power with great speed and good plate discipline to boot. Trout has posted a .329 AVG, with 8 HR and 23 SB to go with the .990 OPS. Peter Bourjous's ineffectiveness could be the easiest path to the show for Trout.

Matt Moore- No other word can describe his 2011 season other than dominate. 103 K's in 77.2 IP with a 2.43 ERA to boot and a K/BB ratio of nearly 5. With Niemann, Cobb, Sonastine all capable of manning the 5th spot it will be difficult for Moore to find a roster spot until roster expansion in September.

John Lamb- Another highly touted prospect in the Royals system. Lamb hasn't been a power pitcher this season with only 22K in 35IP. Lamb has managed a 3.09 ERA and could very well find a roster spot somewhere given Sean O' Sullivan types are currently getting the ball every 5th day.

Wil Myers- Converted C has gotten off to a rather pedestrian start thus far. Solid AVG of .296 but little power or speed is to be had at the moment and his 34 to 13 K to BB rate suggest he doesn't have a solid Batting Eye at this point. It appears as though Myers only upward movement will be to Triple A.

Jacob Turner- Top arm in the Tigers system. Much like Porcello, Turner has the makeup of a power pitcher but the high K totals just aren't there. In 79.2 IP this season Turner has 64 K's and a K:BB rate of just over 3:1 with a ERA of 2.94. Turner likely won't be used as a spot starter at this point so his best chance at a rotation spot in the near future would be a significant injury to a member of the rotation.

Shelby Miller- Recently promoted to Double AA, Miller isn't on track to see the majors this season. Keep in mind though LaRussa hasn't been afraid to call on young pitchers in the past, to play very important roles during a playoff chase. Miller is your prototypical RH power pitcher posting 103K in only 73 IP this season at two levels. Miller also has excellent command with only 26 BB issued over the same time period. Jake Westbrook has been horrid this season, while Kyle McClellan doesn't' have a lengthy track record so it is entirely possible a rotation spot could open up but Miller could also find himself a role at the back end of the bullpen much like a Adam Wainwright or David Price over the final two months of the season.

Manny Banuelos- The 5'11" LH is one of the top arms in the Yankees farm system. In 59.1 IP this season Banuelos has posted a 3.49 ERA to go with a 1.51 WHIP. BB have been a issue for Banuelos with 35 free passes in the 59.1 IP. On the season Banuelos has a K/BB rate of 56/35 hardly big league ready numbers. With Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, and Bartolo Colon either hurt or inconsistent the opportunity is there but at the moment Banuelos doesn't appear to be in the mix.

Dellin Betances- The same cannot be said for the 6'8" 260 pound Betances who it would seem has surpassed Banuelos as the top arm in the Yankees system. Betances is another power RH with 66 K over 56.1 IP. Betances has issued 27 BB over that period which isn't good but as his 1.76ERA and his 1.13 WHIP would suggest, he has given up little else. The Yankees have always been more prone to make a deal for a veteran at the deadline than look from within but with continued efforts from Betances that could change this season.

Martin Perez- Top pitching prospect in the Rangers system. Perez has a power arm for a lefty posting 73K in 76.1 IP this season. Perez has decent control with only 30 BB on the year however Perez has been rather hittable with hitters hitting in the .260's against him and issuing nearly a hit per inning. Despite the 1.36 WHIP Perez has maintained a 3.30 ERA on the year. Though the Rangers pitching staff has struggled at time particularly Lewis and Holland no openings appear imminent combine that with his struggles this season, Perez will likely not see the majors this season.

Wilin Rosario- Power hitting C prospect for the Rockies. Rosario does have some pop but the rest of his game isn't up to par. Rosario has only 11 BB in nearly 200 AB's and is hitting just .258 on the year with a .751 OPS. With Iannetta and Morales both established veterans, Rosario will likely not be called upon this season.

Derek Norris- Another power hitting C prospect, Norris has also showed off his power skills with 9 HR in 145 AB on the year. Though Norris is hitting only .221 with 47 K's on the year he has shown a solid batters eye with 33BB over that span as well as a strong OPS of .837 and good speed for a C with 6 SB on the year. With Wilson Ramos young and already established Norris likely will not be called upon this year.

Jarrod Parker- Another impressive young arm at the Rockies disposal. Parker has struggled at AA this year with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.44WHIP in 61 IP this season. Parker does have K potential but the nearly 4.5 BB/9 will need to be corrected before he is given a chance with the Rockies.

Brett Jackson- A potential power and speed guy with a good batters eye. In 160+ AB this season Jackson is hitting .270 with 6 HR and 13SB with a .855OPS. Marlon Byrd's injury opened the door for Jackson but as of the moment the Cubs have been patient or just ignorant. My thinking is once Jackson is called up he will be there to stay barring a inability to hit ML pitching therefore Cubs brass are waiting to see the timetable for Byrd's return. With Fukudome gone after this season, Jackson will at some point be starting in CF and hitting leadoff for the Cubs this season as they begin play for next year but when that will be is anyones guess.

Casey Kelly- Another piece of the Gonzalez trade. Kelly's stock has leveled off a bit over the last year but he still remains on peoples radar with the potential home park of Petco. Kelly doesn't overwhelm hitters posting only 59 K in 77.1 IP but he does have good control with only 21 free passes issued. A WHIP of 1.33 does suggest Kelly can be hittable at times. With the Padres likely out of it come August and September I could certainly see Kelly being given a cup of tea but anything prior to that will likely be given to Luebke.

Grant Green- SS, A's. Green's lofty stock coming into the year had more to do with his bat than his glove. With that in mind a .273 AVG with 2HR 1SB and a OPS of .693 would lead me to believe 2011 has been a disappointment. As if the actual numbers weren't enough to suggest Green isn't ready for the Majors how about his 17 BB in over 250 AB's.

Arodys Vizcaino- P, Braves. The Braves could very well be the Braves of the 90's within 4 years. Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Hanson, and Vizcaino are all in their early 20's and all should be ML ready within two years. Vizcaino is a hard throwing RH with very good control having issued on 18 free passes in 66 IP this season. Vizcaino has a WHIP of 1.03 on the year to go with his 2.86 ERA over two levels. Vizcaino will likely not taste the ML this season given the stockpile of talent ahead of him on the depth chart but certainly keep Vizcaino on your radar for the years to come.

Triple A Talent- Here are the players who figure to be next in line for the callup.

Jason Kipnis 2B, Clev. Think Danny Espinosa with AVG. Kipnis's batting eye suggest he will be a solid source of AVG., somewhere north of .280, at the next level. But he likely isn't going to win a batting title. He will provide you with a solid source of both speed and power but will not be elite at either. On the season Kipnis has a .298 AVG to go with 8HR and 10 SB with a OPS of .886. Orlando Cabrera is currently blocking the ascent of Kipnis who seems ready at this point. Should the Indians fall from contention they could look to deal Cabrera at some point or move Kipnis or Cabrera to 3B to replace Jack Hannahan.

Desmond Jennings OF, TB. I cannot recall a prospect who has been on the radar as long as Jennings but has still yet to been given a extended look. Jennings has shown some improved power this season with 9HR in 285 AB, his previous career high was 11 in nearly 500 AB's in 09. With the increased power has come a increased K rate. His previous high for K came in 09 when Jennings had 67 over the entire season. Already this year Jennings has K 57 times. Given his proven track record will give him the benefit of the doubt and assume this year is the outlier for both HR and K's. Jennings value at the next level will be with his legs. Jennings has swiped over 30 bags in every season yet this year Jennings only has 12 on the year but in his defense he has been running less with only 13 attempts on the year. Once again I would focus on the proven track record over the events of one season. A trade of BJ Upton would certainly open the door for Jennings which has long be rumored. Otherwise continued poor play from Sam Fuld could very well open the door for Jennings.

Jesus Montero C, NYY. Another prospect mentioned at nausea no doubt because he wears the pinstripes. To hear people speak of Montero you would think he is the next Mike Piazza in terms of a bat, yet his minor league track record has only one season of more than 20 HR. Montero does have two seasons with AVG's over .320 yet his plate discipline is below AVG and he has two full season around .280. His biggest hurdle could be his sub-par defense that tends to matter as a C. Montero will likley be a good offensive C in the long run but as is the case with many Yankee prospects the hype will not match the results.

Julio Teheran P, ATL. At just 20 Teheran is the most highly touted of the many young Brave farmhands and his 2011 Minor League numbers certainly don't do much to dispute this. Teheran has a ERA of 1.78 to go with a WHIP of 1.02. His K/9 of 7.64 isn't elite but keep in mind he is only 20 besides the biggest concern for hard throwing pitchers such as Teheran is control and with a K:BB ratio of 60:18 it by no means is a issue. Teheran has been up and down twice this season so it's obvious he is on their radar however it will likely take a trade or a injury to lock down a permanent spot in the roatation.

Mike Montgomery P, KC. The top pitching prospect in the system headin into the year but 2011 hasn't been pretty for Montgomery. A 5.00 ERA with a WHIP of 1.48 and 46 BB in only 75.2 IP are all ugly marks. As I mentioned with John Lamb the opportunity is certainly there for Montgomery to claim a spot in the rotation however they will certainly not call him up while pitching at this level.

Chris Carter OF, Oak. Carter is coming very close to losing his prospect status. At only 24 Carter is still somewhat young however this is his third stint at Triple A. Carter's 2011 was delayed because of injury so his ugly stat line of .225 AVG and a .765OPS shouldn't scare people away. Carter does have 7 HR in just under 90 AB's on the year and his batting eye is solid. The issue with Carter will likely be opportunity with the A's. Coco Crisp, David DeJesus, Connor Jackson, Josh Willingham, and Hideki Matsui all battle for AB's between the OF spots and DH therefore with the current roster it would make little sense to add a 6th player to the mix. Carter will likely need the trade deadline or two injuries to clear the way.

Jose Iglesias SS, Bos. Known more for his excellent glove Iglesias's bat was great last season which propelled his prospect status into the Top 50 in baseball. 2011 hasn't been the same. In 170+ AB's Iglesias has a .218 AVG with a OPS in the .480's not to mention 0 power and limited speed. Big picture Iglesias will likely be a better real player than fantasy as his glove could be A+ level while at best he becomes a empty .280-.300 hitter. Lowrie is already injured so a injury to Scutaro could open the door for Iglesias but he shouldn't be on your radar as a fantasy owner in anything other than AL only.

Lonnie Chisenhall 3B, Clev. As mentioned in the Kipnis coverage, the below AVG play of Hannahan does have 3B wide open for the Indians. First and foremost Chisenhall was just recently placed on the DL so it goes without saying his potential promotion has been delayed. Even when healthy Chisenhall hasn't been effective this season posting a AVG in the .250 range with a OPS just above .730. With only 5 HR in over 240 AB's and a less than average batters eye there is nothing to suggest Chisenhall is ready to man the hot corner in the bigs. I do think Hannahan will lose the everyday 3B job I just think Indians brass will somehow put Kipinis in the fold.

Jenry Mejia P, NYM. A big cog in the Mets bullpen last season Mejia was assigned to the Minors to stretch back into a starter. In limited work Mejia was effective posting a ERA of 2.86 to go with a WHIP of 1.06. His K/9 total of just 6.67 isn't ideal but 28.1 IP isn't a big enough sample size to come to any conclusions. Injuries currently have Mejia on the DL therefore a callup certainly isn't imminent. I have little doudt Mejia will find his way back onto the ML roster at some point however I think his role will be determined by how the Mets are playing. If they are a contender he will likely be a 7th or 8th inning guy. Should they be out of the playoff picture look for Mejia to get about 5 starts or so late in the season. In terms of fantasy Mejia has limited value as a setup guy however as a starter he would certainly be worth monitoring.

1 comment:

jesseward said...

If you didn't plagiarize this, then I am deeply concerned about how much research you do for fantasy sports. You should be an informant for a sports show.

Sincerely,

Jesse