Spreadology 2010

Not the 8-3 mark from two weeks ago but 3-2 of last week is much better than the 1-4 or 2-3 marks I had been producing week after week. I promised you and yours a better Christmas and up to this point that is exactly what I have given you if you had the intestinal fortitude to lay the money down. This weekend is your final chance to fatten your wallet before the gift giving festivities begin. This weekend also marks the start of the Bowl season therefore the Factory will give you a pick from every Bowl Game this year which should give everyone a monetary jump start on 2011.

Bowl Games

12/18

UTEP vs. BYU -12. Outside of Mike Price and Tim Hardaways UTEP-Two-Step which was a unstoppable move on Bulls vs. Lakers and the NBA Playoffs for Sega Genesis, I don't know much about UTEP. What I do know is that BYU isn't a very good football team therefore 12 Points gives me good value and I love value.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State +2.5. NI may have the better mark but Fresno State has played the better competition. Losses to Nevada and Boise should pay off in this spot because the Bulldogs and Pat Hill will likely not see anything from NI that matches the level of play from Boise or Nevada.

Ohio vs. Troy -1.5. I have wagered on OU about four times in my life and I believe I have won all four contest. Consider me superstitous.


12/21

Louisville vs. Southern Miss -3.5. My decision is solely based on the point spread. SMiss is best know for the school that produced Brett Favre and Jimmy Buffett than it's football success over the last 5 years while Louisville plays in a BCS Conference and is certainly more recognized nationally yet Southern Miss is the favorite by a mere -3.5 points. This smells as if Vegas want's the common bettor to recognize Louisville and value the points. We here at the Factory have fell for this scheme time after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, after time, and I be damned if we fall victim once more. We'll give them those stinkin 3.5 points and easily cover.

12/22

Utah vs. Boise State -16.5. This could be the biggest give me of the Bowl season. The two best teams Utah played this season were TCU and Notre Dame and they responded by losing by a combined score of 75-10. Boise State is a better team than both. It will be close at Kickoff but after that all Broncos.

NFL

Saints vs. Ravens -1. The Ravens pass defense isn't good. The Texans reminded us of that on Monday Night. What I do like about the Ravens however is their overall balance as a team. Their defense isn't great but even with it's passing issues it's likely a Top 8 unit in the NFL. On offense they can run the football like a Top 5-8 team and when they need to they can fling it around like a Top 5-8 unit. The Saints aren't built that way. They throw the ball with the best of them but they don't seem to be the type who can pound it 35 times and eat up chunks of yards. So as the calender is now in late December and weather can play a factor I like the balanced offensive team against the Pass Heavy dome team at home in a pickem anytime. Even though they may not be the better team.

Falcons vs. Seahawks +6. The Falcons are finally playing like a elite level team. The difference isn't when the Falcons play the best of the best in the NFL it's when they play the bottom feeders such as the Seahawks. In years past this would be a loss for the Falcons, on the road facing a inferior opponent likely meant a loss. But now the Falcons are primed and focused and with a win could obtain Home Field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Jets vs. Steelers -6. After proclaiming Sanchez the best among the second tier batch of QB's in the NFL he has responded with two stinkers in a row and certainly doesn't appear capable of handling the praise of the 64/60. Meanwhile after a pasting by the Patriots the Steelers are positioning themselves for a first round bye in the playoffs. If Sanchez can just move the chains with enough frequency to win Time of Possesion this should be a FG game. Nearly a TD seems like good value in a spot like this.

Broncos vs. Raiders -6.5. The Raiders are running the football like very few this season and McFadden is becoming the Top 5 RB most envisioned the First Round pick becoming. The coaching change didn't do much to inspire the Bronc's last week and a trip to Oakland doesn't seem like the remedy they need. Raiders have no room for error down the stretch while the Broncos are just looking to mark another game off the Ledger.

RECAP: UTEP +12, Fresno State +2.5, Ohio +1.5, Southern Miss -3.5, Boise State -16.5, Ravens -1, Falcons -6, Jets +6, Raiders -6.5

Last Week 3-2

Season: 45-41