The Fantasy Spin On The Hot Stove

The past seven days have been the busiest thus far in the young Hot Stove season. Expect things to continue to heat up this week as MLB Owners, GM's, and agents convene in Orlando for the Winter Meetings. Given the large quantity of moves this week I have organized the moves by team. The following are transactions from 12/1-12/7.

White Sox

* Signed Adam Dunn. The biggest bat in the Free Agent pool. Dunn had stated his desire not to DH so it surprised me he chose a AL team. Dunn is currently penciled in as the everyday 1B but will likely find his permanent role as a DH by midseason. Dunn should get a boost playing home games in Comiskey rather than Nationals Park and Dunn should have a better supporting cast than in past seasons with the Nats. From a numbers standpoint Dunn is a solid 40HR threat who is coming of a season with a respectable AVG above .260. Though Dunn has shown no regression from a numbers standpoint over the last few seasons there are some numbers to look that could mean a decline is closer than one may think. Dunn has always been a big K guy but his OBP didn't suffer because of his high BB rate. Dunn posted his lowest OBP since 03 last season with a .356 mark. This low total was the result of a 11.9 BB% which was the lowest of Dunn's career and nearly 5% lower than his career mark. Another concern is a decrease in AVG. Dunn's HR's, RBI and Run totals are always welcomed but his .230 AVG takes some of the shine from it. At .260 Dunn's value is 12/15 picks higher than at the .230 range. Dunn's high mark last season was the result of a BABIP of .329 should this total drop into the .270 range than expect a AVG total in the .240's. Bottom line: Dunn is a viable Fantasy Option. However often times he is drafted as a centerpiece when he should be a stat filler thus his draft stock is anywhere between a 4th Round pick to a 8th or 9th Rd target. I would target Dunn sometime after the 5th Round but I am not penciling a AVG. north of .260 or HR totals above 40.

* Re-Sign AJ Pierzynski. A surprise move to many, this signing will likely delay the debut of Tyler Flowers. However Pierzynski or Flowers could be used as a DH if the Sox stay put the remaining offseason. AJ has never been a elite level catcher however many of fantasy owners have drafted him as a starter and have been satisfied over the years. Given Pierzynski's age and Flowers hanging over the shoulder AJ should be targeted as a number 2 option who falls to you and don't draft him until after the 21st or 22nd Rd.

Red Sox

* Resign Jason Varitek. Somewhat of a head-scratcher but when Jarrod Saltalammachia is your projected starter that is cause for concern. Outside of a three year run from 03-05 Varitek's reputation as a viable offensive threat is unwarranted. Varitek will likely get spot duty and will not be the everyday guy unless Salty is a disaster which could be the case. Even if Varitek is the everyday guy from a fantasy standpoint their are likely plenty of better options around.

* Acquire Adrian Gonzalez from Padres. Gonzalez's stock figures to skyrocket by leaving Petco in favor of Fenway and the short porch in right. The increased value of Gonzalez stock will likely move him into the back end of the first round or no lower than Top 20 overall. Gonzalez will contribute a solid AVG north of .290 and should feast of the Monster while at the same time hitting 40HR's and with Ellsbury, Pedroia and OBP machine Youklis hitting in front Gonzalez should threaten 120RBI. My only concern would be the Red Sox not adding another bat to put behind Gonzalez. If Ortiz or Drew is placed in the 5 hole then expect HR totals in the 30's and RBI total slightly above 100.

Giants

* Resign Pat Burrell. In a 96 game stretch with the Giants Burrell had a nice run hitting 18HR with a .266 AVG and a .872 OPS. It feels as though Burrell has played forever but he is only 34 going into the season. Burrell's biggest roadblock could be playing time. DeRosa should be back from injury come Spring Training so assuming Sandoval comes into camp healthy Burrell could be a 4th or 5th OF option. If the Giants make moves to free up a spot for Burrell it will likely take a injury to put Burrell in a everyday role which leaves him with no value on draft day. If injuries and roster adjustments free up Burrell to be a everyday player than he does warrant a late 23-25th Rd selection.

Mariners

* Resign Erik Bedard. 164IP in two season shouldn't have you sold that 2011 will be the year Bedard puts it together. Outside of a high BB/9 rate Bedard has pitched well during those brief stints. The story on Bedard will be the same as last draft day, target him as a high reward player but don't pull the trigger to early.

* Obtain Chaz Roe from Rockies for Jose Lopez. Roe is a former first round pick who has faded out of favor with the Rockies. Roe has no fantasy value this season.

Rockies

* Acquire Jose Lopez from Mariners for Chaz Roe. Lopez was terrible last season coming off a very solid 09 campaign. Lopez loses his 2B eligibility going into the season but should regain it as he is likely to play 2B with the Rockies. Lopez goes from spacious Safeco to the hitter park or all hitter parks, Coors. With the move to Coors and a reversal of misfortune last season expect solid contributions from Lopez next season. A low HR/FB% of 4.9% is nearly 3% lower than his career mark so with the move to Coors Lopez should be a 20HR threat this season. Given Lopez's low BB% he likely won't be much better than a .270 hitter with a OPS in the .720's but with multiple position eligibility early in the season Lopez would make a quality MI option at a likely low price. Should the Rockies move Stewart to 2nd than Lopez becomes only marginally draftable.

* Rockies sign Ty Wigginton. A head scratching move coming of the Lopez trade but I suppose Wigginton provides insurance at several positions. Wigginton's fantasy value should take a hit as Wigginton will be moved to a Super Utility role. Monitor the Rockies 2B/3B/1B situation during Spring Training if a full time job is awarded to Wigginton then his value will be similar to that of Lopez.

Yankees

* Resign Mariano Rivera. Over the course of his career Rivera has been about as automatic a fantasy producer as there has been in the game. At the age of 40 Rivera completed one of the best seasons of his career. Besides the advanced age of 41 I have reason for concern heading into 2011. Rivera posted a K/9 rate last year of 6.75 his lowest total by a substantial amount since 1998 at the same time his BB/9 increased all so slightly for the third straight year and was his highest mark since 05. Rivera posted a ERA of 1.80 however his xFIP was double that a 3.65. All of this indicates that Rivera's remarkable 2010 was the result of some luck rather than improved skill. In no way am I recommending not drafting Rivera what I am suggesting is that Rivera is likely to have a substantially inferior season compared to last year and his status as the number 1 or 2 Closer is a hefty price to pay for a season which will likely disappoint.

* Resign Derek Jeter. As if this wasn't going to happen. Jeter's 09 troubles are well documented. Jeter is no longer one of the games elite at the position but what should his value be. The majority of the underlying numbers from last season compare reasonably with his career totals. Jeter did suffer a low BABIP for him of .307 compared to a career mark of .356. Jeter did have a high increase of GB last season the rate of 65.7 is nearly 9% higher than his career mark. Should Jeter stabilize this number in 2011 a AVG closer to .300 should be expected. Jeter will still bat near the top of the order and should score 100+ runs once again but the days of a .320 hitter are over and it would appear that a 20 SB season would be a stretch. Jeter has now become a MI option but will likely be selected by many as their number 1 SS.

Dodgers

* Sign Rod Barajas. Your typical number two C, you simply hope he can provide decent value in one area. Barajas's value is in HR. Barajas can be counted on to provide decent value with 15 HR's from your number 2 guy.

Padres

* Acquire Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and PTBNL from Red Sox. Kelly is the 24th rated prospect in baseball according to Baseball America and both Fuentes and Rizzo are considered solid prospects at this point only Kelly seems to provide any value this season and Kelly is likely nothing more than a late season call-up.

* Sign Aaron Harang. Opening Day starter for Reds last season pitched himself out of the rotation by years end. Good news is that Harang should benefit from a move to Petco and away from GAB. Also Harang had a LOB% of 69.4 which is below his career mark of 73%, Harang also had a high BABIP of .346 compared to a .318 career mark. Though these numbers suggest a rebound could occur Harangs increase in BB% as well as a lower K/9 suggest Harang's decline is more about lack of stuff than bad luck. Harang will likely be targeted by many as a late round value pick however I prefer to target a player with higher upside.

Blue Jays/ Brewers

* Brewers acquire Sean Marcum from Jays for Brett Lawrie. Lawrie is a Top 10 Prospect within the Brewers organization but is still likely a year away. Marcum finally remained healthy this season and posted some good results: 13W/3.64ERA/1.15WHIP/7.6K/9 in the rugged AL East. The 09 results of Marcum seem pretty legit only a HR/FB% of 9.4 is off his career marks. The biggest concern moving on to 2011 for Marcum has to be his IP totals of 195 after missing all of 09. Countless research has been completed regarding this and the numbers aren't good however as with everything there have been exceptions. Anytime a pitcher moves from the AL to the NL I think of all the marginal AL pitchers who have become very good starters in the NL Arroyo, Lilly and Carlos Silva come to mind. Marcum will likely be a guy you can target as a 5th or 6th starter and at that price he is worth the risk.

Nationals

* Sign Jayson Werth. Werth becomes baseball latest 100 million dollar man. We can save the madness of this deal for later. Here are the positives Werth is a legit 20/20 threat who will bat in the 4 hole. Here are the negatives. Werth loses Utley/Howard/Rollins/Victorino as players who sit the table for him and now instead of being a small piece of the puzzle he has the pressure of being about half of it now. Instead of feasting of National pitching he now must face the Phillies and their staff often. Werth posted a .290+ AVG last season which was aided by a .352 BABIP so you should expect a AVG somewhere in the .260-.270 range with modest speed and power. Certainly not a player worth 100 million and certainly not a player who will likely go amongst the first 30 in the draft.

Orioles/Diamondbacks

* O's acquire Mark Reynolds from D backs for David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. I don't understand the desire to trade away a 27 year old 3B who is a consistent 30 HR threat with some speed who despite setting K records yearly manages to post a solid OPS in the .830-850 range and all at a reasonable price, for two RP. Reynolds is essentially a Adam Dunn clone. Not the power source of Dunn but is a threat to hit 35a better AVG mark than the .198 from 09 would suggest. Likely will settle in the 250 range but his OBP will be in th mid 3's. Often plugged into the 4th or 5th hole with D'Backs Reynolds will settle in nicely to the 6th or 7th spot in a AL lineup. Reynolds will play improved pitching however the tradeoff in ballparks should negate the changes. Reynolds will be a good 8th or 9th RD target or possibly earlier if you are in need of a good power source.

* D'Backs sign Melvin Mora. After parting with Reynolds the D'Backs fill their 3B spot with 80 year old Mora. Mora had a good run in Colorado last season but who doesn't Mora will split time with Geoff Blum and the two will battle it out to see who the least valueable 3B will be.

* D'Backs sign JJ Putz. Putz pitched well enough last season to warrant closing consideration this offseason. Putz will be welcomed into the worst bullpen in baseball last season and will assume the closers role and will likely have a pretty long leash on the job.

Pirates

* Sign Kevin Correia. Not really a big name option but Correia is the second Free Agent Pitcher signed to a multi-year deal in ten years for the Pirates. I don't know what is more pathetic, the Pirates have been that irrelevant for that long or Kevin Correia has to resort to the Pirates for a multi-year deal. Correia will likely be slotted in the 2 or 3 spot in the rotation and hope to rebuild his once promising resume. The move out of Petco figures to hurt Correia somewhat however PNC is somewhat neutral and the NL Central isn't a murderers row of quality hitting teams. Correia low LOB% of 68.4 combined with a 14.8 HR/FB% balloned Correia's ERA to 5.40 last season. However as his xFIP of 4.19 would indicate Correia was better than that. He improved his K/9 and GB% for the 3rd straight year. It's not often a move to Pittsburgh increases your value but Correia will likely fly under the radar and could reward someone who takes a chance on him with a 24th or 25th Round selection.

Non-Tenderd Free Agents

* The Following Players were the most intruiging names who were not tendered a contract last week thus making them a free agent.

Jack Cust, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Fields, Scott Hairston, Bobby Jenks, Fred Lewis, John Maine, Russell Martin, Lastings Milledge, Andrew Miller, Dioner Navarro, Chien Ming Wang, George Sherril