Getting a Pulse On the Upcoming Hot Stove Season

The NLCS isn't even over and we still have a couple of weeks of playoff baseball but for the Fantasy Players 2010 is in the books and the focus is now on 2011. We here at the Factory wanted to get a pulse on the Free Agent Market this offseason. I wanted to identify players who may be switching teams so later on down the road in 2011 prep I can look at Home/Road splits to indicate players who's numbers may suffer or improve just because of a change of venue. Overall the Free Agent Class of 2011 appears to be a rather weak group in terms of youthful talent. The pitching market could be the worst I have seen in quite sometime. For the complete list check out, mlbcontracts.blogspot.com. But here are the headlines.

Players with Player or Team Options- 31 players may be worthy of a Fantasy Roster spot depending on the situation. The list is headlined by Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. I can't see either leaving but in the event they would it would certainly add some depth to the player pool. Adrian Beltre ranks just below the SS duo but like them I would be surprised to see him leave. Cuddyer would be a guy who could make a impact somewhere however given his low salary this is a no brainer for the Twins. Dotel, Wood and Thornton would add more RP who could land closing gigs this offseason.

The Top 10 (No particular order)

Adam Dunn- 30HR 180+ Run Production Stats is a guarantee and should be expected to match those numbers for the next three seasons before the decline begins. Dunn is a Top 50-75 player year after year.

Carlos Pena- A poor mans Dunn. Pena hasn't improved in the AVG department as Dunn has been able to do. Pena isn't the lock that Dunn is but in a shallow player pool the 40 HR threat is a enticing option.

Derek Jeter- No longer a top of the line player in real life or fantasy but it is still Jeter. I can't see any scenario that has him not in a Yankees uniform to begin 2011.

Mariano Rivera- See Jeter above with the lone exception that Rivera seems to be as good or perhaps better than ever. A lock for 30+SV and a ERA below 3.00.

Victor Martinez- He will certainly test the waters but I see him returning to Boston. If so Martinez will be placed in the middle of the lineup and could surpass 175 run production total with 25 HR not bad out of the C position.

Javier Vazquez- Yes I realize he was terrible for the most part of 2010 but Vazquez will return to the NL this offseason and magically will return to the Cy Young form of 2010.

Ted Lilly- The Dodgers could be the front runners and a full season on the West Coast could produce a 20 game winner type pitcher who could move into the Top 15-20 pitchers next season. UPDATE. Reports out of LA are that the Dodgers will offer Lilly a 3 year deal that he will accept. Good news for Lilly owners in 2011.

Jayson Werth- Has all the tools and has been a fantasy stud for the last two seasons. Almost certainly will leave Phillie and with the move owners will lose Victorino, Utley, and Howard who have filled the bases and protected him in the lineup. He will be compensated as a Superstar but is he one?

Carl Crawford- The offensive gem of the class. Crawford is a First Rd selection regardless of were he lands. SB totals may very by the style of play with his new team but it would be hard to imagine Crawford going to a team who doesn't run. Crawford will demand Superstar Money but I also believe he will take less money to play for a contender. I don't see a ARod to Rangers situation here.

Cliff Lee- No doubt this playoff run will only increase his value. This looks to be a Yankees acquisition. If so a move to the AL East should hurt the overall Fantasy value of Lee however it would likely move him up the draft board.


Potential Closing Candidates- Each offseason it seems as though 7-8 teams could change closers. Typically these positions are filled by Free Agents rather than trades or inserting from within. I have already mentioned Wood, Thornton and Dotel as possible candidates but Scott Downs, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, Brian Fuentes, Kevin Gregg, JJ Putz, Jon Rauch, Rafael Soriano and Koji Uehera. All have closing experience and all will likely have a new home next season outside of Toronto possibly holding onto one in the Downs, Frasor, Gregg trio.

Reclemation Pitching Projects- It seems as though each season a pitcher picked up off the scrap heap to have a very solid season. This success could be because of a new league, or perhaps a change of venue, or a pitching coach. Here are some candidates for 2011. Erik Bedard(How Many Years Have We Been Saying This Now?), Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Correia, Chris Young, Justin Duchscherer all could fall into this categorey.

The Best of the B Bunch- So we discussed the cream of the crop. So this next group are the follow up girlfriends from a bad breakup. They may not be exactly what you want but it's better than going home empty handed. Jorge De LaRosa, Jake Westbrook, Hiroki Kuroda, Derrek Lee, Paul Konerko, Johnny Damon.

Breakout?- It also seems as though some under the radar acquisition on a random January day turns out to be a big move for the big club and pays dividends from a Fantasy angle. Maicer Izturis could be that guy this season. Izturis plays 3 positions effectively. He doesn't do anything great but he also doesn't do anything bad. He won't hit 20HR's but he also isn't Ozzie Smith and if given every day duty he would hit double digits. Not a league leading SB guy but he could swipe 25. Not likely to hit .310 but is a consistent .280 type hitter. If he can bat near the top of a good lineup you could be looking at a .280 AVG 13HR 25SB 90 Run player out of a 2B/SS/3B/MI/CI option.

During the Offseason the 64/60 will give you the breakdown from a Fantasy perspective on the weeks Free Agent Signings in the Fantasy Spin On The Hot Stove.