Fantasy Fundamentals From The Factory

10 PLAYERS WHO WILL BE OVERDRAFTED ON DRAFT DAY

I have purchased 4 Fantasy Previews and have read through a 1/2 Dozen more. I have looked at ADP's(Average Draft Position)for players and some players are flying under the radar while others as you may imagine are for lack of a better word "OVERATED".
Once again the Factory is here to make your life much easier. I have compiled a list of 10 players who will not live up to the expectations of their Fantasy Owners. These players aren't going to be complete bust but they do not warrant their draft slot. Players are listed in no particular order.

Justin Upton- Most preview magazines have Upton as a late first round pick or early second. Upton is a fine young player and just 22 years old and entering just his 4th season in the bigs. Most magazines are counting on a potential 30/30 season for Upton which is why his stock is so hight. However his 20SB last season isn't indicative of his previous season as 2008 SB total was 1 in over 100 games. Also his 300AVG from last season was 50 points better than his 08 mark and a 360BABIP could be a big reason for the rise. I suspect a lower AVG for Upton this season and it will be hard to match the 20SB from last season as Upton will likely be planted in the 4th spot from day 1. Hard to spend a 1 on a 285 hitter with 12SB even if he once again tops the 30HR mark.

Andrew McCutcheon- His ADP is 68th which means he is a 6th Rd pick in most formats. McCutcheon is a young player with great upside but to think that he will be a 20/20 player in his first full season in the majors with no real supporting cast around him seems to unreasonabale. Bottom line in the 6th Round you are looking for real contributors in counting stats i.e. 30HR or 30SB or 100Runs and RBI producers or you are beginning to build your SP. Or you are looking at a well balanced contributor who is giving you something in 4 or 5 areas. McCutcheon isn't this player yet he may give you 20+SB but he isn't likely to hit the 20HR or give you the .300+ AVG or 100/100 to go along with it.

Derek Jeter- Jeter's career has been built by the name on the front instead of the number in the back. Jeter has been a fine player but his superstar status isn't warranted. The SS position in years past has been very shallow but this year that simply isn't the case. Jeter's ADP is 38 so Jeter is a 4th Rd selection. At some point all of the games played will begin to bring him down. Jeters 18 HR last season and 30SB where his highest marks since 05 and 06. Jeter will be a 300 hitter and given the talent around him 100 Runs is possible but without the 30SB it would be hard to spend a 3rd or 4th pick on a player who isn't a 3 Stat filler.

Manny Ramirez- What an effect one positve drug test can be. Since the fertility pills where brought to the attention of the public Manny has been a 260 hitter with middle of the road power and nothing similar to his days in Boston or the beginnings of Mannywood in LA. There may be a few of the faithful left but the days of Manny being the 300/30/100/100 threat are gone. Despite his struggles in the second half of last season Manny is still being selected by the 6th or 7th Rd in drafts and most publications have him ranked near there or slightly above. For arguements sake let's say Manny is closer to the 260 hitter than the 300 and those 30HR are in the low 20's and instead of the 3rd spot in the lineup he is batting behind both Kemp and Ethier does that sound like a 6th round pick? If so have at it.

Julio Borbon- Borbon lead many fantasy owners to victory last season establishing himself as a real SB threat over the final two months of the season. Borbon had a very strong 09 in the minors so his season was a suprise to many. Borbon didn't stop hitting once he arrived in the Majors. Borbon hit .312 and with his 19 SB in 46 games his stock for this season is suprisingly high. Borbon is being selected in the 10th or 11th Round of most drafts and most publications have him as a "Sleeper" canidate. Which makes me wonder if every publication has the same player as a Sleeper is he really a sleeper? Anyway back to the point Borbon is projected as a 30-40 SB threat however should Borbon struggle out of the gate he could just as easliy be a Pinch Runner for the reamainder or the season rather than the leadoff man and CF. I really like more assurance from my 10th round pick. Even if Borbon holds on to the job his .312 AVG of last season will be hard to match thanks to his .360BABIP from last year. SO if his AVG takes a dip he may be placed in the 8th or 9th spot in the lineup. Then you have a roster spot dedicated to a 30SB player with no other contributions which is accpetable with a 20th Rd selection but not in the heart of the draft with other really good safer options available.

Roy Halladay- As I typed the name I realized how big of an idiot I am. Halladay has been dominant over the last 5 seasons in the best division in baseball. Now he is moving to the weaker NL so his run of dominance should continue. This opinion is based on one fact. All of those innings from past seasons must take their toll at some point. I really feel that this season some of the effects will begin to show. Halladay will still be a very good pitcher don't get me wrong however most publications have him as the 3rd or pitcher selected behind Lincecum and Greinke. Also Halladay's ADP is the second best of any pitcher only behind Lincecum considering this Halladay isn't worth a 2nd or 3rd Rd Draft pick for me. Halladay will be a good pitcher who pitches for a really good team so you can still circle him to be the ace of your staff. But to spend a 2 or 3 on him is foolish.

Michael Young- Five years ago I spent a 1st RD selection on this man. That season was by far my most pathetic season of Fantasy Baseball. Though Michael Young is no longer in the 1st RD discussion he is still OVERATED. In the majority of the publications have Young in their top 60 and his ADP is 71. This all means that Young is a 5th or 6th RD selection. Young hit 22 HR last season and hit 322 to go with it. Those numbers could warrant such a lofty selection however a repeat of both marks isn't likely. First off Young has lost Hitting Instructor Extrordinaire Rudy Jaramillo. Secondly Young beniffeted from a .351BABIP. Finally the 22 HR's where the most for Young since 05 and a product of Young's FB/HR rate of 15% compared to a career mark of 9%. With the decline of both numbers Young selected prior to the first 12 RDs would be a mistake. Likely a mistake that will be made during drafts from coast to coast.

Brian Matsuz- Matsuz is another player who's value will be inflated because of the sleeper label. Every publication has Matsuz listed as a player to watch in 2010. So every owner will come into there draft thinking they have the edge over everyone else. One will become impatient and before you know it the words Brian Matsuz will be uttered in Round 12. Matsuz by all indications appears to be a up and comer. Matsuz is a lefty who throws strikes. Matsuz isn't the Johnson type who blows people away but he isn't a Moyer type who bores you into mercy. The problem with the situation is that Matsuz plays in the AL East and must face good offenses on a nightly basis. By years end Matsuz will post a ERA around 4.50 and his K/9 will be near 7 but his IP won't give him many opurrtunities for QS or rack up his K totals.

Chris Carpenter- Carpenter wasn't good last season he was absolutely dominanat. Carpenter posted a ERA of 2.24 and logged 192.2 innings. Unlike the previous two season Carpenter was able to stay healthy last year. Carpenter is a top 50-70 overall player in most top 300 list and Carpenter's ADP has him being selected within the Top 10-15 pitchers. My first thought is that Carpenter will face a extended stay on the DL this season thus his value will be deminished. Even if Carpenter can avoid a DL stint 3 numbers stick out to me. Carpenters BABIP last season was 272 nearly 30 points below his career mark so a increase should be expected. ALso Carpenter had a Strand rate of nearly 80% last season which is 8% over his career mark a increase in both will mean more base runners and more runs alloweed. Also Carpenter's K/9 rate of 6.73 is his lowest mark in a full season with the Cardinals and given Carpenter's injury history it is unlikely that his K/9 will increase this season. Carpenter is a good pitcher but if you are drafting him to be your number 1 or 1B then you may want to stock up on some insurance policies.

David Aardsma- I wanted to include Ryan Franklin on this list but most publications are also calling for Franklin to lose the Closers job early in the year. Aardsma was a Waiver Wire Gem last season beginning the season as the 8th inning specialist but won the closers job by week two or three. Aardsma posted a 2.52 ERA to go with the 38Saves. Aardsma is just outside of the Top 100 overall in many publications and is average draft spot has him selected within the top 10-15 Closer. Aardsma 09 season has some warning signs for regression in 2010. Aardsma's control has always been an issue. Aardsma even last year posted a BB/9 of 4.29 which is two walks below his 08 mark but thanks to the increase in K/9 his ratio of 2.35 is manageable. If either number brings the ratio below 2 expect his production to be effected. Another disturbing trend is Aardsma FB% of nearly 54% was aided by a HR/FB rate of 4.2% which is half his career mark. Should Aardsma continue to allow the 54% FB rate then the 4.2% will increase. So figure it up more FB going over the fence and more Runners on in the process equalls more runs given up and less SV over the season. The Mariners are committed to winning and Aardsma doesn't have a track record of success. Should he struggle out of the gate they will not hesitate to pull the plug. If Aardsma was a 20th Rd. selection then he would be worth the risk but you are looking at a 10th to 15th Rd choice.