Friday, July 9, 2010

Fantasy Fundamentals From The Factory: The Science Of Streaming




The streaming pitcher approach is a common practice within the 64/60. At my last count 6 owners use this practice at least three times per week while often meeting the 7 roster transaction limit per week. The 64/60 is a daily league which allows you to pick up an extra start every day of the week if needed. For those of you who participate in a weekly league you also will use this practice throughout the season but in a weekly league it is refereed as the "Two Start Pitcher". If you play in a very shallow league often times the drop off in pitching is insignificant. However if you wear big boy underwear and play in a league with some depth there is a reason these pitchers are available. Upon occasion a solid fantasy performer will emerge but more often than not you are looking at average to below average players. So to effectively perform streaming it takes more than just selecting the first starting pitcher you come to. What you have to do is find the optimal matchup that can turn that average pitcher into a fantasy stud for that day. In today's installment of Fantasy Fundamentals I have done some of the grunt work for you and I have identified some of the worst offensive teams and thus best matchups for you to look for when searching the waiver wire of FAAB pool on a daily or weekly basis.


Just give me the strikeout. Often times you are just looking for strikeouts. If you play in a head to head league often times if you have a bad pitching week your ERA and WHIP get so inflated that it becomes impossible to overcome. However you may still have a chance in stats such as K or K/9. Typically on the Waiver Wire you can't find the 8+ K pitcher so you should look for teams who have a habit of swinging and missing. Here are the 5 most hacking teams in MLB.

1. DBacks 793
2. Marlins 673
3. Rays 653
4. Rockies 651
5. Jays 648


ERA Reducers- Though a low ERA doesn't always lead to a W it is the best statistical data available to project into a W or L. In theory a pitcher who allows 1 run over 9 has a better chance of winning than a pitcher who allows 5 after 6. If you participate in a QS league then a ERA can be directly converted into a QS. When projecting a possible ERA you must factor in the opposing teams run scoring capabilities. Here are the 5 worst offenses in terms of Runs Scored.

1. Pirates 272
2. Mariners 290
3. Astros 299
4. Orioles 301
5. Cubs 343

Often times Runs scored isn't a direct reflection on how pathetic a teams offense is. No question each of these teams have had troubles on offense but a big factor on a teams total runs scored is hits with runners in scoring position. Think of it this way if a team has two additional hits per week with runners in scoring position they would have scored an additional 30+ Runs thus far on the season. Another statistic that is a good indicator of the type of run scoring potential a team has is OPS. For those who have been hidden under a rock or rely solely on the back of a Topps baseball card for stats OPS is On Base% and Slugging % combined to form one number. The 5 worst OPS teams in baseball.

1. Astros .642
2. Mariners .656
3. Pirates .657
4. Padres .684
5. Orioles .697


WHIP It WHIP it good. Trying to lower that WHIP just enough to leap frog the opposition. How about preying on those teams with a low .AVG or perhaps take it a step further and find those teams who struggle getting on base all together (OB%).

5 Worst AVG

1. Pirates .237
1. Astros .237
3. Jays .238
4. Mariners .239
5. Indians .246


5 Worst OB%

1. Astros .295
2. Pirates .303
3. Jays .305
4. Mariners .309
5. Orioles .318
5. Padres .318


When all is said and done these should only be used to differentiate between like pitchers. If applicable always choose the best arm available if one stands out. More than likely you are left to choose between a group of 3-4-5 starters. The day to day ebb and flow of baseball is so unpredictable so it is very unlikely for any method to have a 90% success rate but if you take these stats into consideration the better of you will be.

40 comments:

jesseward said...

Basically, find a pitcher who is starting against the Pirates and you should be fine.

jesse

jesseward said...

Or the Astros.

jesseward said...

Or the Astros.

jesseward said...

Or perhaps the Astros.

jesseward said...

Maybe even the Astros.

jesseward said...

Possibly the Astros.

jesseward said...

including the Ass Pirates.

I think that solves it.

Hey, when is the annual 64/60 professional baseball trip? The one where I don't get invited but get to hear about it later. Butch and I would like to be considered for this years team.

jesseward said...

Of course, that is unless Chris is going. In that case, I'll opt to volunteer for a shark attack.

jesseward said...

How about we go see the Braves?

Anyone?

jesseward said...

Or the Reds.

jesseward said...

Or .... the Astros.

jesseward said...

What about the Astros.

jesseward said...

Anyone up for a visit to Houston to see the Astros?

jesseward said...

We could even make the loop and catch an Astros game!

Anyone?

jesseward said...

How about the Astros?

jesseward said...

Has anyone consider the Astros as a possibility?

jesseward said...

Ass fucking tros!!!

jesseward said...

Long view the Astros.

jesseward said...

Astros 4 life!

jesseward said...

Astros 4 life!

jesseward said...

I just spent all my money on a Nolan Ryan rookie card as well as some retro Astro jerseys.

jesseward said...

Astros. Man. Astros.

jesseward said...

Astrosity!

jesseward said...

Astronomical

jesseward said...

Astroterf.

jesseward said...

Astrology
Astronomy

jesseward said...

Astrological

Cane Tuckee said...

I'm Sorry fellas, this stuff is pure gold...

jesseward said...

Astromagical

jesseward said...

Astrosuperior

jesseward said...

Astrowickfuckingawesome!

jesseward said...

Astros.

Big H.I. said...

Ummmm Ironton are u ok?

jesseward said...

I am fucking Astroexceptional.

You?

jesseward said...

astro- 
a combining form with the meaning “pertaining to stars or celestial bodies, or to activities, as spaceflight, taking place outside the earth's atmosphere,” used in the formation of compound words: astronautics; astrophotography.

Indeed.

jesseward said...

Astrocompounding

jesseward said...

I have decided to switch beers. I have long been a Bud Light drinker; not because Bud Light tastes good but rather that it tastes like water and, if time allows, you can drink enough of them to get drunk thus avoiding severe weight gain and dehydration. I can get the same results/benefits and honor the timeless, winless Astros by switching to Stroh's.

I willl keep this league updated with the progress of this decision.

Jesse

jesseward said...

Astroh's Beer = Stroh's.

Stroh's... when life gets you down.... wallow then shoot yourself to get disability therefore acquiring more money to buy more Stroh's, repeat. Inevitible.

Iluv2addpitchersdaily said...

Its official hes cracked under the pressure of fantasy baseball.The day to day grind of it all has kicked his ass.If any is in range please go to his apartment,condo,home or dwelling of sorts that he resides in and make sure he is still conscious.

Thank You
GRC3

Big H.I. said...

He has def folded under the pressure. Its like in that one movie FEVER PITCH Jimmy Fallon is sitting there in front of the tube going haywire listening to the saying "Carl Yastrzemski" over and over again.